CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures failed to push through overhead resistance and finished with marginal losses on the session. Ongoing harvest and the prospects of large corn supplies weighed on prices. December futures lost 2 cents to 419 ¾, and March futures fell 2 cents to 436 ½.
• Corn harvest will likely be picking up after the current wet weather moves through, as producers have been focused on harvesting a rapidly drying soybean crop. The prospects of a record crop and farmer selling will limit market gains.
• Even though the USDA October WASDE report is cancelled, many analyst groups released estimates for that potential report. Expectations were for corn yield to slip to 185 bu/a, and total production to remain a record crop at 16.645 BB produced. Corn carry out was still forecasted to remain burdensome at 2.231 BB.
• Brazilian Ag Agency reports that corn exports in the month of September reached 7.65 MMT, up from 6.42 MMT last year, as record production provides ample corn supplies to meet the global market.
• Brazilian consultancy, AgRural, estimated 2025/26 first-crop corn planting hit 40% done, up from 37% a year ago and the fastest since the 2012/13 season.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended Tuesday’s session with modest gains, holding onto trade optimism that a potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi in early November could lead to renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. In today’s trade, soybeans and soybean oil are posting slight gains, while soybean meal trended lower. November soybean futures closed at $10.22.
• Harvest activity continues to advance rapidly across the U.S. with progress nearing 40% completion, slightly behind the 47% reported at this time last year. These figures are based on private analyst estimates, as official government data were not released yesterday due to the government shutdown.
• Harvest pressure remains a significant obstacle for soybean markets, as weather across most of the Midwest looks ideal for harvesting over the next five days, before the 6–10 day forecast shifts to above-normal precipitation.
• Planting in Brazil is 9% complete, progressing toward the second-fastest pace on record. In Mato Grosso, planting has reached 15%, well ahead of the 6.1% average for this time of year. Soil moisture conditions are expected to improve next week, with increased precipitation in the forecast. President Trump and Brazilian President Lula held a phone meeting yesterday, which both sides described as constructive, with additional calls scheduled. Brazil continues to benefit from the U.S.–China trade tensions, as September soybean exports rose 20.2% year over year, while soybean meal exports increased 19.1%.
• The U.S. dollar is trading higher again today; however, U.S. soybean prices remain well below South American levels, and it would take a significantly larger dollar rally to narrow that gap.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower led by the Chicago class – December Chi lost 6 cents to close at 506-3/4. Meanwhile Dec KC was down 3-1/2 to 492 and MIAX finished 4-1/2 lower at 552. A combination of the rising US Dollar Index and a lack of fresh news kept the wheat complex under pressure.
• Though the crop progress report was not released this week due to the government shutdown, the US winter wheat crop is believed to be about 50% planted, up from 34% last week. Elsewhere, Ukraine’s winter wheat crop is also half planted, with 2.35 million hectares sown so far.
• Bangladesh has committed to purchasing 220,000 mt of US wheat, paying $308/mt on a DNF basis. This is part of a governmental trade deal between the two nations made earlier this year.
• Key rains were missed by southeastern areas of Australia during the month of September. This region produces about a fourth of the country’s wheat crop annually – the states of South Australia and Victoria were forecasted to harvest about 8.2 mmt of wheat, but with warming temperatures and lower soil moisture levels, analysts believe there will soon be production estimate cuts; some speculate on losses of one half to one million tons.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were mostly lower, pressured by a slightly weaker spot trade for cheese. December futures fell 4 cents to $17.04.
• Spot cheese fell 0.75 cents to $1.7525/lb on 6 loads traded. Whey prices were unchanged from yesterday at $0.63/lb.
• Class IV milk futures fell sharply due to the drop in butter prices today. December futures closed 52 cents lower to $15.18.
• Spot butter lost 2.75 cents on the day to move to $1.6675/lb. Powder prices dropped a penny to $1.15/lb.
• Today’s Global Dairy Trade auction event was down 1.60% to 1,180 points.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg