CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn prices continue to grind around the 420-price area, being held in check by the 100-day moving average over the December contract, as prices finished with small gains on Wednesday. December futures gained 2 ¼ cents to 422. March added 1 ½ cents to 437 ¾.
• Corn spreads are showing some buying strength is the front end of the market as the Dec-Mar corn spread has been eliminating some carry and trading at its tightest level since July. This could be a reflection of the strong demand, producers holding bushels, or a tighter supply causing strength in the front months.
• Ethanol production recovered last week to 315 mb/day, up from 293 mb/day last week. This production total was above expectations. A total of 106.7 mb was used for ethanol grind last week, which is behind the pace needed to hit USDA targets for the marketing year.
• The Trump administration has delayed announcing a producer aid package as the ongoing government shutdown has limited administrative capacity to finalize details.
• The U.S. Dollar Index continues to strengthen, reaching its highest level since early August. A firmer dollar may act as a headwind for U.S. export competitiveness.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The soybean market wrapped up the midweek trading session with gains across the entire soy complex. Markets remain encouraged by optimism surrounding the potential upcoming meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi, which could have implications for trade and tariffs. November soybean futures are trading up at $10.29 ¾.
• A major obstacle for U.S. soybean markets and a potential trade deal with China is the upcoming implementation of port fees on Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports, scheduled to begin October 14. Some analysts fear these fees could derail any progress on trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.
• With the government shutdown delaying USDA reports, trade estimates are being used as a proxy. Today’s trade estimates put the average U.S. soybean yield at 53.2 BPA, with ending stocks at 317 million bushels, up from 300 million in September. Global ending stocks are expected to decline slightly. While U.S. soybean yields showed a modest drop, the decline was less pronounced than that seen in corn.
• Argentina’s oilseed workers had planned a strike today over wages and benefits, but the government intervened and initiated a mandatory 15-day conciliation period to negotiate a deal. Historically, such strikes have tended to support U.S. soybean meal and oil prices.
• Brazil’s soybean exports are projected to reach 102.2 million tons through the end of October, surpassing the previous record of 101.3 million tons for this period set in 2023, according to Anec figures. The surge is driven by strong Chinese demand and the absence of U.S. soybean shipments to China, which has redirected purchases to Brazil.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite early weakness and a stronger U.S. dollar—now at its highest level since early August—wheat futures managed to close higher across all three classes. The December Chicago contract gained 1/2 cent to close at 507-1/4, while Kansas City was up 1-1/4 at 493-1/4, and MIAX moved 3-1/2 higher to 555-1/2.
• Russian cash wheat values are said to have weakened yesterday for the first time in several weeks. Additionally, FOB values between large global exporters are close together, keeping competition stiff. According to the International Grains Council, U.S. Gulf HRW offers are $229/mt, compared with $226 for French wheat, and $231 for Russian wheat.
• Ukrainian wheat exports July through September totaled 4.7 mmt. This is down 23% year over year; however, shipments out of the Black Sea area are expected to increase, which may limit upside for U.S. futures. For example, according to Rusagrotrans, Russian October wheat shipments could reach 5.1 mmt, which would be up from 4.6 mmt shipped in September.
• Tomorrow, traders will not receive the previously scheduled monthly WASDE report due to the government shutdown. However, private analysts are still being polled. According to a Bloomberg survey, the average estimate of 25/26 wheat ending stocks comes in at 880 mb, up from 844 in September. Global wheat carryout is estimated at 265.9 mmt, versus 264.1 on the September USDA report.
• SovEcon has increased their projection of Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop, reportedly due to higher yields. The wheat production forecast was upped 1.5 mmt to 22.9 mm. Additionally, the 25/26 wheat export estimate was raised to 16.8 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were mixed today, with minimal activity throughout the board. November contracts slipped 4 cents to settle at $16.93.
• Spot cheese rose 0.1250 cents to close at $1.73875/lb, whereas spot whey held steady at $0.6300/lb.
• Spot butter lost 1.75 cents, settling at $1.650/lb, and spot powder held steady at $1.150/lb.
• Class IV milk futures extended losses, as November contracts dropped 14 cents to settle at $14.56.

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Author

Brandon Doherty