CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures traded modestly lower Thursday, pressured by continued strength in the U.S. dollar and concerns over demand. December corn was down ¼ cent at 5.01-3/4 while March corn was also down ¼ cent at 5.16-3/4.
• Corn exports were at 30 million bushels which was at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 769 million are down 34% from the yearly average vs the USDA forecast of down 4%. Noted buyers were Mexico at 20 million bushels and Colombia with 8 million.
• Reuters’ poll shows analysts expect U.S. corn production to slip to 15.721 billion bushels, with ending stocks at 1.670 billion bushels in Friday’s USDA report. Pre-report yield estimates average 177.8 bpa, down from 178.5 bpa in September.
• Wet weather is expected to return across the Midwest during the latter half of next week, while the Eastern Belt and Mid-South could also see impacts from the hurricane in the Gulf. High winds may create additional issues in areas already dealing with stalk rot, potentially causing some harvest delays toward the end of next week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for a second consecutive day but remain relatively rangebound ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Export sales were toward the lower end of expectations but remained firm, with China again among the top buyers. Volatility in soybean meal has increased sharply over the past week and has been an important driver of soybean price movement.
• November soybeans lost 10 cents to $12.87-1/2 and appeared to bounce off support at the 40-day moving average which is near $12.85. March soybeans lost 10 cents to $13.14 while December soybean meal lost $8.20 to $357.60 and December soybean oil gained 0.24 cents to 67.92 cents. December crude oil is up $3.22 to $90.77 a barrel.
• Today’s export sales report was within trade estimates with an increase of 20.2 million bushels for 26/27 and no sales for 27/28 as of October 1. This was down 47% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were China, Mexico, and Tunisia. Last week’s export shipments of 50.7 mb were above the 33.0 mb needed to meet USDA estimates.
• Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 26/27 crop virtually unchanged at 309 million bushels from 310 million bushels from a month ago. Harvested area is estimated to be unchanged at 85.9 million while yield is expected to rise by 0.1 bpa to 52.9 bpa which would slightly increase production.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed moderately lower as the U.S. dollar remained firm, while weakness in corn and soybeans provided no support. Traders are not expecting major changes in tomorrow’s WASDE report but will be watching global demand estimates closely amid ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. In the December contract, Chicago lost 3-1/4 cents to 683-1/4, Kansas City fell 2-1/4 cents to 736-1/4, and MIAX dropped 4-1/4 cents to 706.
• The USDA reported 16.6 mb of new wheat export sales for 2026/27. Weekly shipments totaled just 8.0 mb, well below the 15.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s 775 mb export target. Total 2026/27 export commitments stand at 371 mb, down 32% from last year.
• Ahead of tomorrow’s report, traders are looking for US 26/27 wheat ending stocks to come in around 722 mb, which would be up from 717 mb in September. Globally, 25/26 carryout is expected to fall 0.2 mmt to 280.4 mmt, and for 26/27 it is expected to rise 0.5 mmt to 276.8 mmt.
• SovEcon has reduced their estimate of Russian 26/27 wheat production by 700,000 mt (almost 1%), to 87.5 mmt. This is now slightly below the USDA’s estimate of 88 mmt. Lower forecasts in Siberia and the Central Federal District are cited as reasons for the decline.
• Lithuania is said to be urging the EU to ban transport of Russian grain through Baltic states. If this does occur, it would further disrupt wheat shipments in that part of the world, which would be bullish for prices.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• November and December Class III futures closed with 30 and 32 cents of gains today, respectively, to bring the November contract to $16.14.
• Spot cheese was up 0.75 cents today as blocks have been trying to close the gap with barrels, pushing the average back over $1.40/lb. Whey was unchanged.
• November Class IV futures gave up 15 cents today while the December through March futures closed with gains.
• Dropping to a new low, butter fell 4.00 cents to move to $1.25/lb. Powder moved to within 3.50 cents of its spring high of $2.2950/lb with another half cent gain today.

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Author

Brandon Doherty