TFM Daily Market Summary 10-09-2023


  • Corn futures were very choppy throughout the day after losing overnight strength, closing 3 ¾ cents lower on the session. Middle East geopolitical tensions and harvest pressure limited any rallies in the corn market today.
  • Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East with the Israeli-Hamas war occurring over the weekend brought a lot of volatility and nervous trade to the marketplace. A strong move higher in crude oil prices supported the grain markets, but that was replaced by a general “risk-off” trade in commodities on the day.
  • Harvest pressure remains a constant in the corn market as harvest ramps up. Due to the Columbus Day holiday, the USDA will not release crop progress pace until Tuesday afternoon. Weather this week looks friendly to keep harvest moving until a rain system moves in towards the end of the week.
  • The corn market lacked any news on the session as the Columbus Day holiday paused Export Inspections report, Crop Progress report, or any potential export sales from over the weekend. Those reports and information will be released tomorrow.
  • The market will likely stay choppy this week as the market prepares for the USDA WASDE report on Thursday, October 12. Expectations are for production to decrease slightly.
  • Managed money continues to hold a large net short position in the corn market. On Last week’s Commitment of Trader’s report, funds were net short 159,433 contracts of corn.


  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower after opening higher. The weekend news regarding Israel declaring war on Hamas, and Iran reportedly backing the attack, sent crude oil higher and initially brought most commodities higher as well, but they faded throughout the day. Additionally, soybean meal ended higher while soybean oil closed lower.
  • This Thursday, the USDA WASDE report will be released, and early estimates are calling for soybean yields to be lowered slightly to 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s report. Production is estimated to come in at 4.134 billion bushels, slightly below last month’s USDA estimate.
  • In Brazil, soybean supplies are reportedly getting thin and could open up significant export opportunities for the U.S. for October and November out of the PNW. The U.S. is currently the only offer for that time frame.
  • Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop is now 10.1% planted, which is up 4.8% from the previous week. Planting is also going more slowly than expected in Brazil, as the Northern and Central regions deal with dryness, and the Southern regions deal with too much moisture.


  • The wheat market received a boost today as the trade added more war premium. Along with new Russian attacks on Odessa, over the weekend there was also some uncertainty in the Middle East. Hamas attacked Israel with missiles, and Iran is also said to be involved. Given that wheat is a staple in this region, it sparked a reaction from the market. As an aside, the Hamas attacks also sent crude oil sharply higher due to concern about production out of that part of the world.
  • Globally there are growing concerns for multiple wheat producers. Western Australia is facing drought, and in Argentina, some analysts are projecting a wheat crop of 15 mmt or less; the USDA is estimating 16.5 mmt currently. Because of this, it is being said that Argentina’s farmers are selling wheat at the slowest pace in seven years.
  • In the face of danger from Russia, 12 ships are said to be waiting to enter Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor to transport grain. Although, Russia remains the dominant wheat exporter, with IKAR estimating their exports at 64.5 mmt of grain, compared with 64.0 mmt previously. In addition, they also increased their estimate of Russian grain production by 1.2 mmt to 141.2 mmt.


  • For just the second time in the last 14 sessions, the spot butter market closed red. The price only fell 0.25c to $3.50/lb, but the pause was enough to push Class IV futures red.
  • November Class IV fell 16c to $20.68, while December lost 5c to $19.65. The powder market did see a rise of 0.50c, which was a positive.
  • The cheese market has gone from a strong selloff to holding steady over the last few sessions. Monday’s trade was unchanged for the block/barrel average.
  • The feed market was mixed ahead of this Thursday’s Supply and Demand report. Corn fell 3.75c, while soybean meal was up $2.50 per ton.
  • US spot whey gained 0.50c to $0.3025/lb on 7 loads traded. There were 23 loads on the bid at the close of the session.


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Amanda Brill

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