CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures fell under selling pressure amid ongoing harvest activity and a broader “risk-off” sentiment, as most equity and commodity markets trended lower. December corn slipped 3 ¾ cents to 418 ¼, and March fell 3 3/4 cents to 434.
• The U.S. Dollar Index continues to strengthen, reaching its highest level since July, and challenge the 100-basis point level. A firmer dollar may act as a headwind for U.S. export competitiveness.
• Rosario Grain Exchange released their projections for the 2025-26 Argentina corn crop. Current planting is 28% complete. The crop is expected to be planted on 9.7 million Hectare (23.9 acres). Total production is forecast to be near 61 MMT or 2.401 billion bushels. If achieved, it would be a new record.
• With producers moving off soybean harvest, hedge pressure from a ramping up corn harvest will likely limit the market.
• Due to large supplies of old crop and new crop, commercial storage for this fall’s corn harvest may be tight and at a premium. The overrun of bushels not finding storage will likely get pushed onto the cash corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans pulled back today after seeing gains yesterday. There appears to be some skepticism now regarding talks next month between President Trump and China’s President Xi. November soybean futures closed 7-1/4 cents lower to $10.22-1/4.
• U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated in a cabinet meeting today that once the government shutdown ends, a new program for farmers can be implemented.
• Weekly export sales data was delayed due to the government shutdown but many analysts are still expecting soybean sales between 0.6 and 1.6 mmt for the week of October 2.
• StoneX reported on Wednesday that they see Brazil’s biodiesel demand increasing more than 6% in 2026 to 10.5 billion litres. The group also said they see an increase in soybean oil usage as well.
• The 8-14 day weather outlook shows above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for much of the Western Soybean Belt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat struggled to hold onto early gains and closed lower in both Chicago and Kansas City futures. MIAX Minneapolis futures, in contrast, did make small gains this session. Dec Chi closed 3/4 cent lower at 506-1/2, KC down 3-1/2 to 489-3/4, and MIAX was up 1-1/2 to 557. From a technical perspective, all three classes are at or very close to oversold levels – this may provide longer-term support under the market.
• Wheat futures were initially higher following reports of a major Russian strike on the Odessa port overnight. Additional support came from comments by Russia’s agriculture minister, who noted that the country’s farmers are expected to plant about 6% fewer winter and spring wheat acres, shifting more acreage toward oilseeds. However, by the end of the session, another strong move higher in the U.S. dollar and renewed talk of increasing South American supply kept U.S. wheat markets under pressure.
• In an update from the Rosario Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat production estimate was increased by 3 mmt to 23 mmt. If reached, that would be a new record; the increase is the result of high yield potential and adequate soil moisture after above-average rainfall. For reference, the USDA is projecting a 19.5 mmt crop.
• According to Expana, a market intelligence company, their European Union soft wheat production estimate was raised by 0.3 mmt to 136.4 mmt, which still falls below the USDA forecast at 140 mmt. However, if realized, this would still be a record high and also be up 22.8 mmt from last year’s crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV futures were down hard again today, with the Q1 2026 contracts all losing more than 50 cents at the settlement.
• Spot butter fell 4.75 cents to $1.6025/lb, another 4 1/2 year low, while powder fails to provide any relief as it fell 1.50 cents to $1.1350/lb.
• Class III futures had a rough day with losses ranging from 13 to 30 cents between the October and March futures.
• Spot cheese was 1.1250 cents higher today to close right at $1.75/lb, while whey was unchanged.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg