CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn ended the day with modest gains after a morning of volatility, following yesterday’s bearish stock data from the USDA and favorable weather for the ongoing corn harvest. Despite the fluctuations, the market’s slight recovery suggests a stabilization or correction after the initial reaction to the USDA report. December’s contract closed up 1 cent at $4.16 ½ .
• For the week ending Friday, September 26, ethanol production slipped to 995 tbd, or 292 million gallons, down from 301 million the previous week and 2% below year-ago levels. This is the lowest production level in 4.5 months and fell short of expectations. Corn usage for ethanol production totaled 99 mb, or 14.16 mb per day, well below the 15.4 mbd needed to reach the USDA’s corn usage estimate of 5.6 bb.
• Ethanol margins are expected to remain solid in the near term, supported by the weekly report showing production down 29,000 barrels per day and stocks falling 700,000 barrels.
• Daily corn export updates will be suspended for the duration of the government shutdown, leaving traders without official USDA export sales data.
• Favorable weather in the U.S. continues to allow the corn harvest to progress with minimal delays. As the crop comes off, Dr. Cordonnier left his U.S. corn yield estimate unchanged at 182 bpa but noted that southern rust is emerging as a significant concern in parts of the Midwest.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher following a dramatic reversal triggered by a bullish tweet from President Trump. November soybeans gained 11 ¼ cents to $10.13, rebounding from an intraday low of $9.93 ¾. March soybeans rose 10 ½ cents to $10.46 ¼, October soybean meal fell $1.00 to $264.70, and October soybean oil added 0.88 cents to 49.75 cents.
• Earlier today, President Trump tweeted that a small portion of tariff revenue would be allocated to help farmers and that he plans to meet with President Xi of China in four weeks, with soybeans as a “major topic of discussion.” Soybeans immediately rebounded on the news.
• Yesterday’s Grain Stocks report showed quarterly soybean stocks at 316 million bushels, slightly below the average estimate of 322 million but within the range of 295–347 million bushels and was generally viewed as neutral. With early yield reports looking strong, the market may anticipate higher stock levels moving forward.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates new-crop Brazilian bean production at 48.5 million tons, down from 50.3 million last season, as producers shift acreage toward corn. Their profitability models indicate that corn is currently the more attractive option for the region.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Chicago wheat futures led the wheat complex today, with the December contract closing 1 ¼ cents higher at $5.09 ¼. December Kansas City wheat fell 2 ¼ cents to $4.95 ½, while December Minneapolis (MIAX) wheat dropped 5 ¾ cents to $5.57 00. The ongoing government shutdown and a weaker dollar weighed on wheat prices.
• According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 31% year-over-year. The EU’s export season began on July 1, and as of September 28, wheat exports have totaled only 4.37 mmt, compared with 6.36 mmt during the same period last year.
• Russia is expected to lower its wheat export tax to 617.7 rubles per ton, down from 655.6 rubles per ton the previous week.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has raised their wheat production forecast for Argentina to 22 mmt, up from the group’s previous estimate of 20.5 mmt.
• LSEG has also raised their Canadian wheat production estimate by 4.4% to 36.5 mmt, citing better yields as harvest progresses across the country.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures posted midweek gains, with November up 49 cents to close at $17.40.
• Spot cheese gained 3.5 cents to $1.7400/lb, while spot whey slipped 0.75 cents to $0.6400/lb.
• Class IV milk futures saw limited activity, with October down 13 cents to close at $14.76.
• Spot butter added 1.50 cents to $1.7250/lb, while spot powder edged 0.50 cents higher to $1.1625/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill