CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures were very choppy throughout the day after losing overnight strength, closing 3 ¾ cents lower on the session. Middle East geopolitical tensions and harvest pressure limited any rallies in the corn market today.
• Corn futures finished lower on the day as harvest pressure and selling in the wheat market weighed on the corn futures. December corn finished 2 ¾ cents lower but held above the $4.85 initial support level.
• The USDA will release the next round of crop progress numbers on Tuesday afternoon. Corn harvest is expected to be near 35% complete.
• Weekly export inspections for last week were released today after the Columbus Day holiday yesterday. Last week, USDA shipped 551,000 MT (21.7 mb) of corn. Total inspections for the 23/24 marketing year are at 128 mb, up 14% from last year. The USDA is forecasting corn exports to be 2.050 bb, a 23% increase over the last marketing year.
• The weather forecast for the first half of the week looks overall friendly to keep harvest pace moving along. Projected moisture in the 2nd half of the week going into the weekend may slow harvest progress going into next week for north and central areas of the Corn Belt.
• The market will likely stay choppy this week as the market prepares for the USDA’s WASDE report on Thursday, October 12. Expectations are for corn yield and production to be reduced slightly. Any possible demand adjustments will be the key to determining the carryout projections.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher in the front months after a lower open, while November ‘24 beans closed slightly lower. Soybean meal also ended higher, while soybean oil was lower amid a down day in world veg oils. Solid export inspections were supportive for the soy complex today.
• Export inspections were the best that have been seen in months. The USDA initially released the inspections number at 1.643 mmt, but that turned out to be a slight error with the real number coming in at 1.036 mmt, still very impressive.
• Supplies of soybeans in Brazil appear to be tightening, giving the U.S. a good opportunity to export beans. China has been an active buyer out of the PNW for October through December, and barge rates have been coming down, so that may provide more opportunity, though soybeans will need a continued bump in demand to justify a rally.
• Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report call for soybean yields to fall slightly to 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s estimate. Production is expected to be lowered slightly to 4.134 bb. It is unknown if the USDA will make adjustments to demand in this report.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat reversed yesterday’s trend, finishing today’s session with double-digit losses in Chicago and K.C., despite rising tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea. Paris milling wheat futures also lost about 2.75 to 3.25 Euros today, suggesting that today’s negativity might not be fundamental in nature. Rather, the funds may have added to short positions, and begun positioning ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.
• Fundamentally, global wheat production is setting a bullish backdrop for the marketplace. Growing regions in Australia and Argentina are very dry, and southern Brazil has seen enough rain to cause flooding. Which is also causing concern about their wheat production and quality. With that said, western and central Brazil, along with Argentina, have better chances for good rain in some of the longer range forecasts.
• Today’s wheat export inspections data initially showed inspections of about 395,000 mt, which was incorrect. A correction was later issued that totaled 265,242 mt, or 9.75 mb.
• Ag Resource is projecting an Argentine wheat crop of 15.2 mmt, compared to the USDA estimate of 16.5 mmt. And because of the El Nino weather pattern, some analysts are estimating that Australia’s crop could be down by as much as 50%.
• Although they raised their corn harvest estimate to 12.1 mmt from 11.5 mmt, France kept their soft wheat production estimate unchanged at 35.1 mmt, which compares to last year’s 33.7 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The US cheese trade appears to be turning the corner with its best close on Tuesday since September 25th.
• The barrel market jumped 3.25c to $1.61/lb on just 2 loads traded. There are reports that large buyers could step in as soon as the market turns. Volume up to this point is still light.
• The 2024 Class III milk average shot up 10c to $18.49 with steady bidding across most contract months.
• The spot butter market was offered 2c lower to $3.48/lb on 2 loads traded.
• October 2024 Class III milk was bid 27c higher to $18.79 while November 2024 Class III added 22c to $18.73.

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Author

Brandon Doherty