CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures started the week with additional selling pressure as the lack of information and ongoing harvest limit market gains. December corn traded lower for the third consecutive session, losing 2 ¼ cents to 410 ¾ and March slipped 1 ¾ cents to 427 ½.
• The ongoing government shutdown limits the information to the market. The lack of USDA information has the market trading with uncertainty. Without information, the path of least resistance remains lower based off the supply picture and harvest pressure.
• The FGIS will release the weekly Export Inspections report on Tuesday morning, delayed because of the Columbus Day holiday. Export inspections are expected to remain strong given the strong start to export sales for the marketing year.
• The Brazil ag consulting group, Ag Rural, reported the first crop corn planting in Brazil has reached 45% complete as conditions remain overall favorable. This is a 4% jump from last year. Brazil’s first crop corn mainly goes to meet domestic demand for Brazil.
• With soybean harvest winding down in some regions, producers are shifting their focus to corn harvest. Logistics may become more difficult as the market handles fresh supplies of a record corn harvest.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended Monday’s session with gains following this morning’s announcement that the U.S.-China meeting is still on track. Traders remain optimistic that the meeting could lead to progress in resolving the trade war. Soybeans and soybean oil posted modest gains, while soybean meal experienced losses. November soybeans closed up 1-0 at 10.07-¾.
• China purchased 12.87 million tons of soybeans in September, according to the General Administration of Customs, up 13.2% from 11.37 million tons a year earlier. This made September’s soybean imports the second-highest on record, according to Reuters, driven by strong purchases from South America, as trade tensions prevented any significant purchases from the United States.
• As of Sunday, the U.S. soybean harvest is estimated at around 58% complete, slightly above the five-year average of 57%, but still behind last year’s pace of 64%.
• Brazilian soybean plantings have advanced 5%, reaching 14% complete, well above last year’s pace of 8%. Rain over the past weekend benefited the beans already planted, and monsoon rains are expected to continue across Brazil. Improving soil moisture should support additional planting. CONAB is expected to release updated production estimates tomorrow. Estimates put planted area up 47.4 million ha to 49.1 million ha this season and production is anticipated to hit 179 million tons up from 171.5 million last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed with small losses across all three classes. While a rise in the U.S. dollar today did not help, it did stay below Friday’s high, which may have limited the pressure on wheat. Without the support of the corn market and increasing global crop estimates, the U.S. wheat market remains under pressure. December Chicago lost 1-3/4 cents to 496-3/4, KC was down 1-3/4 to 481-1/4, and MIAX was down 1/4 at 551-1/2.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values fell $3 last week (versus the week before) to $229/mt. Additionally, IKAR is forecasting that Russian wheat exports in the month of October will surpass 4.5 mmt.
• Analyst APK Inform has increased their estimate of Ukrainian 25/26 grain production to 59.1 mmt. Their wheat production estimate specifically was raised by 0.5 mmt to 22.4 mmt. This still falls just short of the USDA’s last projection at 23 mmt.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the 2025 Argentine wheat crop is rated 96% normal to excellent, and 30% of the crop is flowering. This coincides with increasing production estimates for the country last week as high as 23 mmt.
• Globally, the wheat crop appears to be getting bigger. There is talk that Canada’s wheat production could reach a record high 40 mmt. Furthermore, recent good rains in Australia have boosted confidence in their wheat crop. Additionally, production figures were recently increased for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A drop-off in spot cheese buying demand has caused several Class III milk contracts to push down into new lows as the bearish sentiment in dairy continues.
• The block/barrel average fell 1.50c to $1.69/lb, which is still rangebound. However, the last spur of demand has clearly faded and the market could be worried cheese will break down further.
• Spot butter caught a 1.50c higher bid and closed back to $1.62/lb. This helped to push December Class IV 15c to $14.76.
• Some $13-handle bids have popped up on the Class IV strip lately, but so far the market has avoided breaching the $14.00 level.
• This should be another quiet week in terms of news and reports as the government shutdown enters its third week.

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Author

John Heinberg