CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market failed to hold session highs as harvest pressure and comfortable supplies of corn kept a lid on corn market rallies. December corn lost ¼ cent to 482 ¾, while March corn lost ¾ cent to 496 ½. December futures closed the session 5 ½ cents off the session high on Tuesday.
• USDA released the Weekly Export Inspections report on Tuesday morning. For the week ending October 8, corn inspections totaled 1.302 MMT (51.3 mb). This total was near the top end of expectations. For the early part of the marketing years, total inspections are at 333 mb, up 5% over last year’s early pace.
• After a good week of harvest weather last week, expectations for corn harvest to move along at a good pace on the USDA Crop Progress Report to be released on Tuesday afternoon. Expectations are for corn harvest to push the 40% complete status on the report.
• A wetter weather pattern is expected to return to the Corn Belt this week, potentially slowing harvest progress. Looking toward the end of October, forecasts for above-normal temperatures and precipitation could continue to limit fieldwork.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the session lower amid a lack of fresh bullish news, as harvest pressure and limited Chinese purchases weighed on the market. November soybeans are 5 cents lower at 12.82-3/4, while January soybeans are 6-1/4 cents lower at 12.98-1/2.
• U.S. harvest progress will be released later this afternoon and is expected to show a significant jump from last week, with an open harvest window expected to last another day before rain moves in from the Southern Plains north into Missouri and Illinois. The 6–10 day outlook shows normal to above-normal precipitation chances across the Midwest and Plains, along with above-normal temperatures.
• Chinese soybean purchases have slowed significantly since late September, purchases were estimated at just over 15 MMT. COFCO officials estimate Chinese imports in Q4 2026 will average 9.5 MMT per month, compared to 8.5 MMT per month in Q4 2025. Hopes continue that China will ramp up purchases, as Sinograin sold 210,000 tons of soybeans in today’s auction, accounting for approximately 40% of the volume offered.
• Soybean inspections totaled 40 million bushels, coming in below expectations but above the 29 million bushels needed per week to reach the revised USDA export forecast. Year-to-date inspections of 189 million bushels are up 27% from a year ago, compared to the USDA’s forecast of a 12% increase. China accounted for 24 million bushels, while Mexico took 4 million.
• AgRural reports that Brazilian soybean planting reached 15% as of October 8, compared to the 14% yearly average.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a two-sided trade, wheat closed in the red alongside corn and soybean futures. From a technical perspective, all three wheat classes have become oversold, which could indicate that a bottom is forming. In the December contract, Chicago lost 3 cents to 669-1/4, Kansas City fell 3 cents to 712-1/4, and MIAX dropped 2-1/4 cents to 694.
• Weekly wheat export inspections came in at 11.2 mb, which brings total 26/27 inspections to 256 mb, down 35% from last year. Inspections are currently running below the USDA’s estimated pace; total 26/27 exports are forecasted at 750 mb, down 17% from the year prior.
• IKAR has reduced their estimate of Russian 2026 wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 88 mmt. This is now in line with the USDA figure. IKAR also cut their Russian wheat export forecast by 1.5 mmt to 42 mmt. This is still above the USDA’s forecast of 42 mmt.
• Rabobank is projecting the Australian 26/27 wheat crop at 31 mmt. This is now in line with the USDA. But if realized, this would represent at 13.3% decline, year over year. Overall, their production of all winter grain crops is anticipated around 63 mmt, which would be above the five-year average. Some areas may see sharp declines in production, while others are expected to see new records.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• US spot whey was bid 2.50c higher to $0.8850/lb on Tuesday, which is a new all-time high. Whey hasn’t had a single down day since August 19th.
• Spot cheese also caught some bidding, as the block market jumped a whopping 5.25c to $1.4425/lb. The block/barrel average is about 8c off the low.
• The Class IV futures were spooked by a penny lower powder offer. This is the first down day for powder since September 2nd.
• Class III strength could be coming from a seasonal Holiday demand rally as buyers get orders ready for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
• Front month Class III had a solid day, recovering 9c to $15.05 two weeks into the front month spot.

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Author

Brandon Doherty