CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended a three-day losing streak, finding some buying support from the wheat market, and export inspections to finish the day with positive December corn futures gained 2 ¼ cents to 413, and March added 2 cents to 426 ¼.
• The FGIS released weekly export inspections on Tuesday morning, delayed from yesterday’s holiday. For the week ending October 9, U.S. exporters shipped 1.129 MMT (44.5 MB) of corn. This was down 470,000 mt (18.5 MB) from last week, and below market expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year are 3.1 MMT (122 MB) more than last year’s pace.
• Corn harvest progress has been moving along at a nice pace. It was estimated that 44% of the crop was harvested by the end of last week. Increased precipitation in the forecast for the Corn Belt this week could slow harvest progress.
• The Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, increased 2024/25 Brazilian corn output by 1.4 MMT to 141.1 MMT from 139.7 MMT forecast last month. A first look at 2025-26, Brazil is anticipated to raise 138.60 MMT of corn on increased planted acres.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day quietly lower but rebounded from earlier morning lows. November was down 1-1/4 cents to $10.06-1/2 and March was down ½ cent to $10.39-1/2. December bean meal was up $0.20 to $274.30 and December bean oil was down 0.03 cents to 50.57 cents.
• Futures are still well below all major moving averages following President Trump’s threat of additional Chinese tariffs on Friday. China imported a near record amount of soybeans in September, but none from the United States. Export sales have been decent despite this.
• With the government still shut down, no USDA reports are being released, but estimates for crop progress have been released. The soybean harvest is estimated to be 58% complete, which compares to a Reuters poll last week of 39%. Crop ratings are estimated to be unchanged from last week at 61%.
• In Brazil, soybean planting is reportedly 14% complete as of October 9, according to AgRural. This would compare to 9% last week and 8% at this time last year. This is the third fastest planting pace for the country on record for this time of year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat ended the session higher, led by Kansas City futures. This was likely a technical bounce, as wheat remains oversold, and there is not much in the way of fresh news. However, the U.S. Dollar Index did fall slightly today, temporarily easing pressure on the market. Dec Chi gained 3-1/2 cents to 500-1/4, KC was up 7-1/4 cents at 488-1/2, and MIAX closed 2 cents higher to 553-1/2.
• Despite the government shutdown, traders did receive weekly export inspections data. Wheat inspections were pegged at 16.3 mb, bringing the 25/26 total inspections figure to 392 mb. This is up 18% vs last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from last year.
• Southern Brazil has seen a pattern of excess rainfall, making things too wet. This could impact the quality of their wheat crop; harvest is just getting started. With that said, CONAB has increased their estimate of Brazilian wheat production by 2% to 7.7 mmt, versus the USDA figure of 7.5 mmt.
• According to a Reuters poll of analysts, the average estimate of U.S. winter wheat planting progress is 66% complete. This would be up from last week’s guess of 50%. The official USDA data has not been released because of the government shutdown.
• The French agriculture ministry has reduced their estimate of France’s soft wheat production by 0.1 mmt to 33.2 mmt. Nevertheless, if realized, this total would still be nearly 30% above last year’s troubled crop and more than 4% above the five-year average.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mostly green today with November settling 29 cents higher at $16.38.
• Spot cheese was 1.8750 cents higher to pop back over $1.70/lb, thanks for a 3.75 cents gain in blocks. Whey was down a half cent.
• Class IV futures were mostly unchanged from Monday with October through January still sitting under $15.00.
• Spot butter was up 2 cents on top of yesterday’s 1.50 cent gain to close at $1.64/lb. Spot powder gained a quarter cent.

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Author

Amanda Brill