CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures closed lower as harvest pressure, a stronger U.S. dollar and weakness across the soybean complex weighed on prices. December corn lost 2 cents to 480 3/4, while March futures closed 2 ¼ cents lower to 494 ¼.
• USDA reported corn harvest at 33% complete as of October 11, 5 percentage points below trade expectations and 6 points behind the five-year average. Slower corn harvest likely reflects farmers prioritizing soybeans, with soybean harvest advancing 21 percentage points from the previous week.
• Delayed harvest activity could extend near-term pressure on corn prices and limit upside potential as newly harvested supplies reach the market.
• A wetter weather pattern is expected to return to the Corn Belt this week, potentially keeping harvest progress slow. Looking toward the end of October, forecasts for above-normal temperatures and precipitation could continue to limit fieldwork.
• Stronger-than-expected inflation data Wednesday morning pushed the U.S. Dollar Index to its highest level since April, weighing on corn and other commodity markets.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures finished the day on a weaker note despite China purchasing US soybeans this week. November soybeans were down 6-1/2 cents to close at $12.77-1/4 while March futures closed at $13.00-00, down 7-1/2 cents.
• According to Reuters, a few sources reported that Chinese state buyers have purchased between 8 and 10 cargoes of US soybeans this week. These are the first reported purchases since the September meeting between President Trump and China’s President.
• COFCO reports that China’s soybean crushing capacity may be facing overcapacity. China’s annual crushing capacity has increased almost 20% over the last 10 years while domestic crush is up projected to be up nearly 5% for the 2025/26 year alone at 82.27 mmt. China is facing a declining population, higher age demographics and implementation of lower protein technologies. COFCO went on to say that soybean meal consumption in China may have plateaued.
• Harvest progress here in the US sits at 46%, just behind the average pace of 50% for this time. In South America, Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 15% done which is on pace with the average for the same time period according to AgRural.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed in a mixed manner, with light bull spreading noted in the winter classes. In the December contract, Chicago gained 4 cents to 673-1/4, Kansas City was up 2-3/4 cents at 715, and MIAX dropped 4 cents to 690.
• S. wheat showed strength despite another rise in the Dollar Index to an 18-month high. September CPI rose 0.6% month over month, in line with expectations, while annual inflation reached 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast.
• Algeria is reported to have purchased between 600,000 and 720,000 mt of milling wheat in their tender. That is above previous estimates. The price paid is said to be near $326/mt on a CNF basis. Much of the grain is likely sourced from Russia through Baltic ports. However some may also originate from Romania, Bulgaria, and Argentina.
• Ukraine’s largest farmer union expects the country to export no more than 11 MMT of wheat in 2026/27, down from 14 MMT last season and below USDA’s 12.5 MMT projection.
• The USDA crop progress report indicated that winter wheat sowing advanced 15% on the week to 51% complete. That is under the five-year average of 58%. Additionally, 27% of the crop is emerged, which compares with a five-year average of 32%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• November Class III futures settled at $16.87 today, up 34 cents today and moving higher after bottoming at $15.12 on September 29th.
• Cheddar blocks were up 8.75 cents today on 9 loads traded, bringing the block/barrel average to $1.49125/lb. Whey was unchanged.
• Class IV futures fell hard today with November down 16 cents and December dropping 52 cents. This brought the second month November contract to $20.67.
• Spot powder fell a nickel today to $2.21/lb, spooking the market after the recent rally. Butter was up 3.50 cents for a $1.3050/lb settlement.

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Author

John Heinberg