CORN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Corn futures fell to the lowest price levels since September 23 during Tuesday’s session, as strong selling in the crude oil market and ongoing harvest pressure weighed on corn prices. With today’s close, December corn is now trading 33 cents off the October 1 high of 434.
- The crude oil market traded over 5% lower during the session as global demand concerns and easing tension between Iran and Israel pushed sellers into the market. The sharp break in crude prices limited commodity gains in general on Tuesday.
- Weekly corn export inspections were below market expectations. Last week, the US shipped 16.9 mb (430,000 mt) of corn. This total was less than half of the previous week’s total as exporters are likely shifting to shipping fresh soybean supplies. Current corn inspections are up 19% year over year and running above the pace needed to hit the USDA targets.
- The weather forecast continues to stay favorable for corn harvest. With strong yields overall, the market is seeing selling pressure as fresh supplies enter the pipeline. Corn harvest was 34% complete last week, and the market is anticipating a good jump on the harvest percentage in today’s USDA Crop Progress report.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Soybeans ended the day lower but were bull spread with the front months down less than the deferred contracts. Soybeans had bullish fundamental news like a flash sale, strong export inspections, and strong NOPA crush numbers. Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil was higher despite sharply lower crude oil.
- Today’s NOPA crush report showed US soybean crush up significantly to 177.320 million bushels for September, which compared to the average trade estimate of 170 mb. This was up 12.2% from the 158 mb in August. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.066 billion pounds and are the lowest they have been since November 2014.
- This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 131,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
- Today’s export inspections report showed soybeans inspected for export totaled 57.9 mb for the week ending October 10. This was at the higher end of analyst estimates and puts total inspections for the 24/25 marketing year at 189 mb, which is down 7% from the previous year.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Wheat closed the session with modest losses, finishing near daily lows across all three futures classes. Paris milling wheat futures declined for the third consecutive day, adding pressure. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, though nearly unchanged at the time of writing, strengthened throughout the session after finding support around the 103 level. The index is now above its 100-day moving average for the second straight day, a level it had not surpassed since July 11, 2023.
- Weekly wheat export inspections of 13.6 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 330 mb, up 33% from last year. Additionally, the USDA estimates wheat exports at 825 mb (unchanged from the last WASDE report), which would be a 17% increase from the previous year.
- Crude oil experienced another sharp drop today, at one point falling more than four dollars per barrel. This appears to be tied to news that Israel does not intend to target Iranian oil facilities as previously expected. Furthermore, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency reduced their global oil demand estimates. The downturn in crude likely added pressure to the grain complex, and if the trend continues, it could also limit upward grain price movement in the event of a recovery.
- On a bullish note, the USDA announced a flash sale this morning, reporting that private exporters sold 120,000 mt of soft red winter wheat to Mexico for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. In other news, Jordan reportedly passed on its tender for 120,000 mt of wheat.
- CONAB estimates Brazil’s 24/25 wheat production at 8.26 mmt, unchanged from last month and below the USDA’s estimate of 9 mmt. Additionally, recent rains in Argentina’s wheat-growing areas have helped improve conditions, though at this point it may be too little, too late. Last week, the Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its Argentina wheat harvest estimate to 19.5 mmt due to a lack of precipitation.
- According to the French agriculture ministry, the soft wheat harvest estimate has been reduced from 25.8 to 25.4 mmt. If accurate, this would represent a 27.6% decline from last season’s production. Additionally, barley production is expected to fall, though the corn production estimate has been raised slightly from last month.
DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:
- Class III futures, after trading lower for much of the morning, were able to get a boost from the Global Dairy Trade auction event. December futures rallied 34 cents while the November contract gained 25 cents to close at $20.92 and $21.04 respectively.
- Spot cheese improved for the first time since September 19, gaining 5.1250 cents to close at $1.91375/lb. Whey also slightly improved to $0.5975/lb.
- The Class IV futures were quiet with no trading volume recorded on the day. The 2024 Class IV average sits at $20.79.
- Spot butter was unchanged on the day at $2.6150/lb but saw a whopping 46 loads traded on Tuesday. Powder lost half a cent to close at $1.35/lb.
- Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade auction event declined 0.30% to 1,160 points.
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