TFM Daily Market Summary 10-17-2023


  • Harvest pressure limited the corn market on the session, despite positive money flow into the soybean market, and the lack of fresh news kept corn buyers on the sidelines. December corn lost 1 cent on the session.
  • As of Sunday, the USDA saw corn harvest move to 45% complete, slightly below expectations, and limited by rainfall the second half of last week. With over half of the harvest to go, the market stayed pressured expecting additional fresh supplies.
  • Soybean futures tried to provide some support with double-digit gains and an increase in weather premium due to difficult conditions for some South American soybeans that helped lift the market but only could provide minimal support for the corn market.
  • Corn futures are trading in a range, bound between $4.90 and $4.80 in the short term. The market is looking for some news in either direction to trigger some price movement.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher and briefly broke above the 13-dollar mark. Support came from strong gains in soybean meal, while soybean oil was slightly lower. The trend has been higher since last week’s bullish WASDE report, with dry South American weather adding to the support.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean harvest reaching 62% completion which is 10 points above the average pace as many producers get soybeans wrapped up ahead of corn. Iowa is 74% complete and Illinois 61% done. Crop ratings also improved by 1 point to 53%.
  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report also bled into the bullishness of today after it was reported that 165.456 mb of soybeans were crushed in September, creating a new record high. Soybean oil stocks are also at their lowest levels since 2014 at a time when demand is increasing for use in biodiesels.
  • Attention is beginning to shift to South American weather and planting. Slight showers are forecast for the dry areas of Argentina and Brazil later in the week, but so far planting has not gotten off to a good start with conditions either too dry or too wet.


  • Wheat closed mostly lower. Bear spreading was a noted feature in the Chicago contracts, as traders sold the nearby months and bought the deferred. This may be a reflection of the supply concerns down the road in South America and Australia caused by drought. It is noted, however, that there are better prospects for rain in Argentina this weekend which should bring some relief, though more will be needed.
  • Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that US winter wheat planting was 68% complete, in line with the average pace, and 39% was emerged versus 43% on average. Elsewhere, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry is reporting that 65.2% of their 3.3 million hectares of winter grains are planted.  Of that total, 3.02 million is reported to be winter wheat, with the rest made up of mostly barley and rapeseed.
  • In Russia, Sov Econ slightly lowered their wheat crop estimate, but it is still higher than what the USDA is using. And the fact that Russia continues to offer cheap wheat to the world will keep US exports and futures prices under pressure for some time to come.
  • South American weather is becoming more of a concern for corn and soybeans, as well as wheat. Central and northern Brazil are seeing continued dryness with certain areas along the Amazon River said to be at the lowest levels in over 100 years. And as long as the Amazon River basin remains dry, central Brazil should also remain dry. This has some analysts thinking that Brazil’s wheat production could be down by about 3.3% even though the planted area is 12.1% above last year.
  • India is reportedly dealing with its own weather problems and wheat supply concerns, which had internal wheat prices at an eight-month high. They will potentially need to increase imports down the road. China seems to be doing the same with rumors continuing to swirl that the country is looking to purchase more US soft wheat.


  • Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade auction was the fourth up auction in a row and saw the GDT Price Index jump 4.30%.
  • The US spot market responded well to the GDT demand, as spot whey, powder, butter, and cheese were all bid higher.
  • November Class III milk futures rallied 44c back up to $17.83 and posted its best close since September 18th.
  • November Class IV once again closed over the $21 threshold as new buying interest in spot butter supported.
  • The 2024 Class III milk calendar year average closed into a new record high up to $18.68 per cwt.


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Brandon Doherty

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