CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures fought off early session weakness to finish with small gains to start the week. A quiet day overall with December corn trading a 4 ½ trading range. A strong week of export sales and strength in the soybean market provided support.
• Weekly export inspections remain strong for corn.  For the week ending October 16, US exporters shipped 1.317 MMT (51.9 mb) of corn. For the marketing, total inspections have reached 368 mb, up 61% over last year.
• Corn harvest is projected to be past the halfway point.  Analysts estimate the corn harvest is nearing 59% complete, up 15% over last week’s estimates. With the government shutdown, Crop Progress report is still in pause on Monday afternoons.
• Optimism for a possible trade deal with China is helped support the grain markets. President Trump made comments on Monday that he is hopeful a deal could come together by the end of the month.
• A lack of farmers selling or disappointing yields is supporting the cash market for corn. Areas have seen basis improvement, supporting cash.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day significantly higher for the third consecutive day thanks to optimism that President Trump will strike a trade deal with China. November soybeans gained 12-1/4 cents to $10.31-3/4 while March was up 13-1/4 to $10.64. December soybean meal was up $4.00 to $285 while December bean oil was up 0.18 cents to 51.31 cents.
• Today, President Trump made comments on China saying that China could pay a 155% tariff on US goods if no deal is reached by November 1, that China has been “very respectful” to the US, and that he expects to work out a “fair deal” with President Xi. In addition, China said it would reimburse tariff costs for soybeans bought for state reserves from the US.
• Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 54.2 million bushels for the week ending October 16. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 204 mb, which is down 31% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be down 10% this year from the previous year.
• Over the past 5 trading days funds are estimated to have bought back 17,500 contracts of soybeans which may have brought them back to a small net long position. They were likely buyers of both soybean meal and oil. Funds likely added to that long position today.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had a mixed close after a two-sided trade. December Chi gained 1 cent to 504-3/4, KC lost 1-1/2 cents to 490, and MIAX was unchanged at 548-1/2. In general, the wheat market continues to trudge along near the lows without much reason to rally – large crops expected out of Argentina and Australia may further limit upside potential.
• Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 17.7 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 411.0 mb. This is up 20% from the year prior and inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace. Exports for 25/26 are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from last year.
• One unidentified grain analyst in Australia increased the estimate of their nation’s wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 35.7 mmt. If this new estimate is accurate, it would become the third largest crop on record. Compared to the USDA projection of 34.5 mmt.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $231/mt, which is up $2 from the week before. Additionally, SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian October wheat exports slightly to 5.1 mmt; this compares with 4.6 mmt in September.
• Chinese customs data indicates that their wheat and wheat flour imports for the month of September totaled 390,000 mt, which is up about 60% year over year. However, year to date total imports have reached only 2.99 mmt, which is down about 72% year over year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures are starting off the week higher as the spot cheese market creeps higher. November futures closed 37 cents higher to $17.02.
• Spot cheese ticked higher by 1.1250 cents to $1.78375/lb. Whey added a penny to finish at $0.6650/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were relatively quiet with just a few contracts seeing slight losses on the day. December futures closed 4 cents lower to $14.25.
• Spot butter lost 1.50 cents on the day to close at $1.58/lb, which is its lowest level since early March 2021. Powder was unchanged from Friday at $1.11/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty