CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Harvest pressure and double-digit losses in the wheat market limited the corn market’s ability to rally on Tuesday, as prices pushed to challenge the August lows. December corn lost 5 cents to 462, while March futures fell 4 ½ cents to 476.
• The USDA pegged corn harvest at 44% complete as of October 18. This was up 11% from last week’s pace, but still 8% behind the 5-year average.  Iowa and Ohio were a couple of the slowest states for corn harvest.  Harvest pressure will likely continue as the bulk of harvest remains in the coming weeks.
• Corn export demand is a concern in this early window of the marketing year. As of last week, corn export sales on the books represented 25% of the USDA target for the marketing year. Typically, this is nearly 34% of the USDA target on average.  USDA has only reported two corn sales for the month of October. It is early in the marketing year, but this is a pace that needs to be watched.
• Brazil weather has been mostly favorable for planting the country’s first corn crop. Brazil corn planting has hit 48% complete as of last week.  Brazil is expected to plant nearly 5% more area for corn in 2026-27.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures ended the day lower and have continued to take out previous session lows since the WASDE report was released, with fund liquidation adding to the pressure as managed money exits long positions. Prices were not able to recover despite a large export sale reported to China this morning. The biggest chance for markets to turn around and move higher is for the Super El Niño to disrupt the growing season in South America.
• November soybeans lost 5-1/4 cents today to $12.48-1/4, and the next level of support is down at the 100-day moving average of $12.26. March soybeans lost 4-1/2 cents to $12.73-1/4, December soybean meal lost $6.10 to $348.70, and soybean oil gained 0.04 cents to 66.73 cents despite a drop in crude oil.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report saw harvest advance at a good pace. 64% of the soybean crop is now harvested, which is up 18% from last week and is down just slightly from the 5-year average of 65%. 96% of the crop is dropping leaves, which is also just 1 point below the 5-year average.
• This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 612,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 26/27 marketing year, and this followed sales yesterday of 261,000 mt to unknown destinations and 114,000 mt to China. The recent dip in prices may be leading to larger sales.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower again, with SRW futures leading the way to the downside. A bearish key reversal for Paris milling wheat futures was unsupportive to the US market. Additionally, traders appear to remain unconcerned by the ongoing logistics issues in the Black Sea region. In the December contract, Chicago fell 12 cents to 643-1/4, Kansas City dropped 8-1/2 cents to 691, and MIAX lost 8-1/4 cents to 661-3/4.
• The USDA crop progress report indicated that US winter wheat planting advanced 12% to 63% complete as of October 18. This is behind the five-year average of 69%. Additionally, 39% of the crop has emerged, down from the five-year average of 43%.
• The European Union is said to be working with Turkey and India in an effort to get Black Sea shipping lanes reopened. So far, Russia has rejected offers to do so; however, this adds to mounting pressure on them. In related news, Russia is said to be considering targeting border crossings with other nations, which could further limit Ukrainian grain exports.
• According to the Grain Industry Association of Victoria (Australia), a crop tour in their state found wheat yields 52% higher than a year ago, at 3.8 mt/hectare. This estimate is also above those from the Australian Department of Agriculture. It is worth noting that other Australian states’ wheat yields may not fare as well due to El Niño.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were seen moving higher thanks to active buying demand in the cheese market. November futures finished at $18.09, up 39 cents.
• Spot cheese improved 7.50 cents on the day to close at a new year high of $1.76. Whey was unchanged at $0.8950/lb.
• Class IV futures closed lower on the day on pressure from the butter market. November futures closed 20 cents lower to $21.20.
• Spot butter lost 2.50 cents to $1.36/lb while powder added a penny to end the day at $2.21/lb.
• Today’s Global Dairy Trade auction event improved 2.50% to 1,208 points, up 31 points from the previous event. Cheese and butter were both down on the auction.

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill