CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures failed to find follow-through buying strength on Thursday as the market consolidated around yesterday’s close. December corn lost 2 ¾ cents to 460 ½, and March slipped 3 cents lower to 474 ¼.
• USDA announced weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending October 15, Exporters reports new sales of 1.527 MMT (60.1 mb), which was near the top end of expectations and up 36% over last week. Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.
• Favorable weather forecasts across much of the Corn Belt heading into next week should support harvest progress. A strong harvest pace is likely to keep pressure on corn prices, limiting short-term rally potential.
• Recent strength in crude oil prices could help support grain markets as talk of potential U.S strike against Iran after mid-term elections have pushed oil prices higher with building war premium.
• Wheat prices remain weak on potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The steady pressure in the wheat market limits some of the rally potential in the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher today, snapping an eight-session losing streak as sharply higher crude oil prices supported the soy complex. Iran reported that seven oil tankers were damaged and caught fire after being targeted or striking naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. If verified, this would mark the largest number of vessels damaged in a single day since the conflict began.
• November soybeans gained 7-3/4 cents to $12.53 in more bull spreading action while March gained 5-1/4 cents to $12.71-1/2. Both contracts are severely oversold. December soybean meal lost $1.00 to $347.30 while December soybean oil gained 0.77 cents to 66.74 cents thanks to the move higher in crude. December crude oil is up $2.22 a barrel to $99.34.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 202,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year. There has been a sale every day this week so far with sales to China and Spain yesterday and a very large sale of 612,000 mt to China the day before.
• Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 6.40 MMT in October, while soybean meal exports are projected at 2.52 MMT. Heavy rainfall in growing areas such as Paraná raises concerns about flooding and potential damage to soybean and corn crops. The developing Super El Niño weather pattern could contribute to increased weather volatility.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower once again, pressured by renewed optimism for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Russian President Putin reportedly expressed a willingness to talk following reports of a potential U.S.-brokered meeting.  In the December contract, Chicago lost 3-1/2 cents to 624-3/4, Kansas City fell 7-1/4 cents to 665-3/4, and MIAX dropped 9-3/4 cents to 641-3/4.
• According to the USDA, as of October 20, an estimated 49% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This represents a 4% drop from the week prior, but is still above last year’s 43% reading. Meanwhile, spring wheat area in drought held steady for the week at 38%.
• SovEcon has reduced their estimate of Ukrainian wheat exports by 7.7% to 14.4 mmt. For reference, this is still above the USDA forecast of 12.5 mmt. Ukraine’s wheat shipments July-September are said to be the lowest in 15 years, at 3.8 mmt.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange has increased their forecast of Argentina’s 26/27 wheat production by 13% to 23.8 mmt. This is now above the USDA’s projection of 21.5 mmt. Higher than expected yields are cited as the reason for the increase.
• Egypt’s state grain buyer is reported to have purchased around five cargoes of wheat this week through private negotiations, rather than a tender. Where the wheat will be sourced from is still unknown, however, expected origins are France and Romania. This would be one of their first known imports in several months.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III ended with mixed trade today with gains for November and December futures and losses in all other contracts.
• Spot cheese was up 1.1250 cents today for a $1.7225/lb close while whey was unchanged.
• Class IV futures rebounded after seeing losses this morning to close with small to moderate gains. November futures were back to $21.00.
• After facing losses on Wednesday, both spot butter and powder were unchanged today. They enter Friday down 3.50 and 2.75 cents, respectively.
• Milk production in September was 2.60% higher at 19.433 billion lbs. Cow numbers were up 169,000 head from a year ago and 26,000 head from August.

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Author

John Heinberg