TFM Daily Market Summary 10-25-2023


  • The weak price action of the last couple trading sessions continued to pressure the corn market on Wednesday. Harvest pressure and lack of overall news has kept the path lower this week. December corn lost 4 cents on the session and had traded lower four consecutive sessions.
  • Ethanol production last week rose to 1.04 million barrels/day, up slightly from last week. Ethanol stocks remain tight at 21.4 million barrels. Ethanol producers used 100.6 MB of corn last week and are up to 702 MB for the marketing year. This pace is currently trending up 20 mb (3%) over last year.
  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. While soybean sales have improved, corn sales are still lacking. Last week, corn export sales were at 881,000 mt for the 23/24 marketing year.
  • A strong Midwestern storm will be working its way across the Corn Belt over the next few days.  Rainfall with good coverage and a sharp drop in temperature is forecasted into the start of November.  Wetter than normal forecasts may limit harvest progress through the end of the week in some areas.
  • South American weather will likely stay dry and hot for areas of Brazil, and areas of Argentina are seeing signs of last year’s drought persist. While South American weather is still in its early stages, the corn market is lacking any true weather premium.


  • Soybeans ended the day lower pressured by lower soybean meal, but prices did rebound from lows earlier this morning. Soybean oil was higher thanks to support from gains in crude oil, as well as higher world vegetable oils.
  • Following Monday’s impressive export inspections for soybeans, another flash sale was reported today of 126,000 metric tons of beans to China for the 2023/2024 marketing year. The recent increases in purchases by China from the US, along with yesterday’s purchasing agreements that were signed by China, have been supportive.
  • South America is continuing to plant soybeans despite the hot and dry conditions in both Argentina and central and northern Brazil, while southern Brazil remains far too wet. Although the 10-day forecast features more of the same weather pattern, the Rosario Board of Trade acknowledged that this past weekend’s rains helped to alleviate a lot of concern with Argentina’s soybean planting season.
  • Soybeans got support from purchasing agreements that were signed yesterday between Chinese agricultural companies and US commodity exporters at a ceremony held in Des Moines and organized by the US Soybean Export Council. 11 different agreements were made, and now the trade will look to see when these purchases will be announced by the USDA.


  • A lack of fresh news and pressure from lower corn and soybeans kept wheat on the defensive today. Additionally, Russia remains the world’s cheapest origin for wheat, and the lack of demand is keeping pressure on US exports.
  • While the war rages on in the Black Sea, though it is viewed by many as old news, especially given the developments in the Middle East, Ukraine continues to try to export grain in any way they can, and reportedly their 23/24 exports have reached 8.56 mmt to date. However, that is still down significantly from 12.4 mmt at this time last year.
  • Rumors of Chinese interest in US SRW wheat continue to circulate, but so far there has been no confirmation. There have also not been any flash sales in excess of 100,000 mt, which are reportable on a daily basis. Traders will be watching upcoming export data to see if China has been buying “under the radar”.
  • Adding to pressure in the wheat market are the recent rains in some of the drier areas of South America. Particularly, Argentina received some good moisture in some of the driest areas, and while drought still persists overall, this could be enough to help yields, with some analysts already beginning to increase their production estimates.
  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of October 22nd have reached 9.33 mmt since the season began on July 1st. That represents a 22% decline from 12 mmt for the same time frame last year.


  • Spot cheese was down on the day, now making it a 3.50 cent loss in both blocks and barrels so far this week. Spot whey saw no changes, still trading at $0.3675/lb.
  • Class III futures are still trending in the same direction as cheese but could find some support down toward the $18.00/cwt level. Q1 Class III milk finished at $18.073/cwt.
  • Spot butter melted 6.50 cents on 4 loads traded to finish at $3.3000/lb. Spot powder lost a penny dropping to $1.2000/lb. 
  • Class IV futures were negatively impacted on bad spot butter trading. The November contract traded 43 cents lower to close at $21.07/cwt.


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Brandon Doherty

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