TFM Daily Market Summary 10-25-2024

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The corn market ended the week on a softer note, breaking a 4-day winning streak. Upward momentum appeared to stall as prices struggled to break through resistance, while negative price action in the wheat and soybean markets limited gains. Despite today’s weakness, December corn still closed the week 10 ½ cents higher.
  • For the 8th consecutive day, the USDA announced a flash corn export sale. Mexico purchased 136,000 mt (5.35 mb) of corn for the marketing year. US corn demand should stay strong until the end of the year as export prices for US corn are very competitive.
  • Corn demand has been a bright spot in recent weeks as ethanol grind and export sales have remained consistent. The current pace of corn for ethanol usage is running ahead of the pace needed for the USDA target for the marking year, and 24/25 marketing year corn export sales are the 4th best in the last decade. If the demand tone remains strong, the USDA will likely make adjustments on future Supply/Demand tables, likely reducing the carryout picture.
  • Corn harvest was 65% complete last week, and good progress should be seen again this week. Only limited rainfall touched some parts of the Corn Belt during the week as producers are in the last stages of harvest.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The soybean market closed lower as technical selling pressured prices following Thursday’s weak close. Additional weakness in both soybean meal and oil, which also settled lower, contributed to the day’s losses.
  • The USDA reported private export sales this morning of 116,000 metric tons of soybeans set for delivery to China in the 24/25 marketing year.
  • Dry fall weather has accelerated harvest progress, but low Mississippi River levels are creating logistical challenges for moving grain to the Gulf. This, along with strong export demand, has kept Gulf basis firm. Additionally, profitable crush margins are supporting basis as facilities work to replenish supplies.
  • Planting conditions in Argentina are looking positive as the recent rainfall is expected to continue into November, according to a meteorologist’s statement to Reuters, which should support normal corn and soybean planting.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat was the downside leader in the grain complex today, posting double-digit losses in all three classes. Weakness stemmed from a sharply lower close for Matif wheat futures, recent beneficial rains in Argentina, and talk that Russia continues to offer wheat below this month’s supposed $240 per mt price floor. A rebound in the US dollar and better chances of rain in US winter wheat areas next week may also have played a part in today’s lower trade.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange left its estimate of Argentina’s wheat production unchanged at 19.3 mmt, which is above the USDA’s estimate of 18 mmt. Additionally, the exchange forecasts Argentine wheat exports at 13.3 mmt, compared with 11.5 mmt projected by the USDA. If realized, the 13.3 mmt figure would be the second-largest total on record.
  • According to China’s vice agriculture minister, the nation’s grain harvest this year is expected to surpass 700 mmt for the first time, attributed to higher yields in corn and wheat. As of October 24, 80% of China’s crops have been harvested. In related news, China’s agriculture ministry is outlining plans to develop the rural economy and boost farmers’ incomes as part of ongoing efforts toward self-sufficiency and improved food security.
  • Turkey’s statistics office has released a new estimate for 2024 crop production, forecasting a 5.5% decline in the wheat harvest to 20.8 mmt. Total cereal grain production is expected to fall by 7.1% from the previous year, while vegetable production is anticipated to increase by 6%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III futures were lower again heading into the weekend. First quarter contracts were down 13-29 cents led by the February contract which closed at $19.62.
  • Spot cheese dropped 1.25 cents to close at $1.8850/lb while whey was unchanged at $0.6050/lb.
  • Class IV futures were mixed on Friday with the February, March, and April contracts all seeing an improvement.
  • Spot butter improved 4.50 cents to close at $2.6950/lb which was good for a 3.50 cent gain over the week. Powder closed 1.50 cents higher to $1.3750/lb.
  • September’s Cold Storage report showed cheese stocks down 7% year-over-year while butter stocks were seen 14% higher from a year ago.

 

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Author

Amanda Brill

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