CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Trade optimism, a strong wheat market and export inspections helped support corn futures higher to start the week. December corn gained 5 ½ cent to 428 ¾, while March added 7 ¼ to 444 ¼.
• The market strength likely triggered some producer selling of corn which pressured the December spreads and limited gains in the December futures at 430 price level.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the U.S. and China have reached an initial framework to a trade deal over the weekend. This triggered market optimism on the soybean and wheat market, helping pull corn futures higher. Details are still very limited in a potential deal.
• The weekly export inspection report was friendly to the corn market as U.S. exporters shipped 1.188MMT (46.7 mb) of corn last week. This total was near the bottom of expectations. Current corn export shipments are strong, running 58% ahead of last year at 414.7 mb.
• Mississippi River water levels remain low, limiting transport and increasing the cost to move bushels to the gulf for export. Those additional costs could have a negative impact on the cash market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans extended gains on Monday, with strength seen across the soy complex. The market held firm throughout the session, supported by optimism over reports of a U.S.–China framework deal announced by Treasury Secretary Bessent. November soybeans ended Monday’s session up 25 ½ cents to close at 10.67 ¼, while January soybeans gained 24 ¾ cents to close at 10.85.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that China is expected to resume “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans, with the planned 100% tariff for November 1st reportedly withdrawn. The Phase 1 compliance review announced last week also appears likely to be shelved. This development improves sentiment around U.S. export prospects, suggesting a possible window for renewed Chinese buying before Brazil’s harvest begins in late January.
• As of Sunday, the U.S. soybean harvest is estimated at 83% complete, running ahead of the five-year average. In the absence of updated USDA data, this remains an unofficial estimate. Meanwhile, the U.S. Soy Transportation Coalition reported that persistently low Mississippi River levels are slowing barge movement and driving up freight costs to the Gulf amid peak harvest activity.
• Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 1.061 MMT, reflecting continued seasonal softness and leaving year-to-date volumes down 37% from last year’s pace.
• IMEA pegged Mato Grosso planting at 60% complete, slightly above the 57% average, while Argentina’s midterm elections saw a win for Milei’s libertarian party. AgRural meanwhile estimated Brazilian soybean planting at 36% as of late last week, roughly in line with last year’s pace.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed with double digit gains across the board for Chicago and Kansas City futures, with some contracts leaving small gaps on the charts. Meanwhile, Minneapolis futures posted less impressive gains. December Chicago was up 13-1/2 cents to close at 526, Kansas City gained 12-3/4 to 514-1/4, and MIAX closed 3-1/4 higher at 560-1/4. Wheat was largely pulled higher by soybeans, which themselves were up sharply due to optimism that the U.S. and China are close to a trade deal. Also supportive to the US wheat market was the sharply higher close for MATIF wheat, and trade deals announced with Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand.
• Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 9.5 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 421.2 mb, which is up 19% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimate pace; total 25/26 exports are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• Argentina has cold temperatures in their forecast, with the potential for frost or freezing conditions on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Traders will be watching, as this could potentially cause damage to their wheat crop. Currently, their wheat crop is rated 88% good to excellent, well above the 38% rating a year ago.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $230.50/mt. This is down 50 cents from the week before. In addition, IKAR raised their estimate of Russia’s October wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 5.5 mmt. Nevertheless, SovEcon kept their October estimate steady at 5.1 mmt.
• Russia’s agriculture ministry has confirmed their estimate of 50 mmt of grain exports for this season (July ’25 to June ’26). For reference, Russia shipped 53 mmt of grain last season, with wheat accounting for 44 mmt of that total.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures started the week off with gains. The November contract gained 4 cents from Friday, but finished 20 cents off its daily high.
• Spot cheese pushed to a two-month high at $1.7975/lb with both blocks and barrels adding more than 2 cents today. Whey was unchanged.
• Class IV futures were unchanged besides gains in the December through March contracts. The second month contract sits at $14.02.
• Spot butter gave back a quarter cent on no loads traded while powder was up a penny to $1.17/lb on four loads traded.

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Author

Amanda Brill