CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Bearish selling pressure remained in the grain markets on Tuesday as corn prices pushed new lows for the move. Corn harvest still remains behind schedule, and long liquidation remains a driver in the corn market.  December corn lost 6 ¼ cents to close under the psychological 450 price level at 448 ¾. March closed 6 cents lower to 462 ¾.
• The lack of bullish news and fund liquidation have been the trigger as money flow has been leaving the grain markets. December corn posted its lowest close since July 10 and looks technically weak on the charts.
• USDA reported that corn harvest reached 60% complete as of October 25. This was up 16% from last week, but still 6% behind the 5-year average. Harvest pressure is still likely in front of the market with 40% of harvest to complete, limiting nearby corn rallies.
• Brazilian first crop corn planting has reached 40% complete as overall weather has supported planting pace. This is just slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Brazil first crop corn is typically used to meet internal corn demand, but planted area is expected to increase by 5% more in 2026-27.
• Despite lower prices, corn export demand could be a building concern in the corn market as current corn sales are behind the pace to reach the USDA targets and trend below last year. If the trend continues, export target may be decreased, increase corn supply picture. For the month of October, only three announced corn sales have been published despite the weakening price.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for a second consecutive day despite trading higher in the overnight. Prices gradually fell into the close as a jump in the US dollar paired with yesterday’s Brazilian Presidential election results pressured the market. The President elect has closer ties with China which has caused concern over US export demand.
• November soybeans lost 12 cents today in bear trading action falling to $12.29-1/4 and once again stopped at support at the 100-day moving average. March soybeans lost 9-1/4 cents to $12.51-3/4 also closing right at technical support. December soybean meal lost $5.60 to $334.60 and December soybean oil lost 0.30 cents to 66.71 cents as crude oil fell by $1.83 a barrel to $99.94.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the soybean crop 79% harvested which is up from 64% last week and the 10-year average of 76% at this time. Some analysts believe that soybean yields may turn out higher than the USDA’s last estimate, and this information will be updated in the next report on November 10.
• Yesterday’s Export Inspections report was strong for soybeans following a two-week stretch where China made a purchase of U.S. soybeans nearly every day. 91 million bushels of soybeans were reported for export for the week ending October 22 which exceeded last week’s inspections, with China the top destination followed by Mexico and Egypt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat just can’t seem to find any solid footing and closed lower again today. This is despite the deeply oversold nature of all three US futures classes. The rest of the grain complex was under pressure, and the US Dollar was higher too, both of which were unsupportive for wheat. In the December contract, Chicago lost 5-3/4 cents to 610-1/4, Kansas City dropped 8-1/2 cents to 650-1/2, and MIAX fell 5-1/2 cents to 628-1/2.
• According to the USDA, as of October 25, winter wheat planting advanced 13% on the week to 76% complete. This is down just 1% from the five-year average. Additionally, 53% of the crop has emerged, also 1% below the five-year average.
• IKAR has dropped their estimate of Russian 2026 wheat exports to 29 mmt. If realized, this would be 17 mmt under last year’s final total. Additionally, this is 11 mmt below the USDA’s current projection.
• The US ag attaché in Argentina is estimating their wheat production at 23 mmt. This is higher than the USDA forecast of 21.5 mmt but below the Rosario Board of Trade estimate of 23.8 mmt. Additionally, the attaché projected Argentine 26/27 wheat exports at 17 mmt, which is 1 mmt above the USDA figure.
• The US ag attaché in Australia is anticipating their 26/27 wheat crop will reach 32 mmt. This is 1 mmt above the current official USDA projection. However, if realized, this harvest would still fall 4 mmt short of last year’s crop. Additionally, the attaché is estimating Australian 26/27 wheat exports at 25.0 mmt, up from the USDA’s 23.5 mmt forecast.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III prices were mostly higher with the second month November contract settling at $18.06, 12 cents higher than Monday.
• Spot cheese was up a half cent today to $1.73/lb amid an unchanged whey market.
• Beyond an unchanged October and November, Class IV futures were up a bit from Monday.
• Spot butter was up a penny after falling four cents yesterday. Powder was unchanged at $2.06/lb after giving back 3.50 cents yesterday.

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Author

John Heinberg