CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures fell for a second day as broad selling pressure weighed on grain prices. Sharp declines in the crude oil market and ongoing harvest pressure limited any potential gains in corn to start the week.
• Weekly export inspections for corn shipments last week came in at 824,000 million metric tons. This was down from 1.001 mmt last week, but within trade expectations. Corn export demand has been good in recent weeks, but corn shipments may be pressured by exporters looking to ship soybeans in this time window, which is the typical pattern.
• For the ninth consecutive day, the USDA announced two flash exports sales of corn. Japan purchased 124,000 mt (4.9 mb) and Unknown Destinations purchased 120,000 mt (4.7 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.
• Brazil’s planting pace has picked up as weather conditions have turned more favorable. First crop Brazilian corn was 52% planted versus 53% last year, as reported by AgRural. That first corn crop corn is targeted more for domestic usage, but soybean planting jumped 18% week-over-week, which could mean the exported safrinha (second) corn crop may be back on schedule after soybean harvest this spring.
• The corn harvest was 65% complete last week, and the market is expecting a jump again on this week’s Crop Progress report. Fresh corn supplies are in the pipeline, and that has limited rally potential in corn futures.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower, closing near the day’s lows. The biggest bearish factor today was the sharp selloff in crude oil as a result of Israeli retaliation on Iranian military bases instead of oil production facilities over the weekend, which brought December crude oil down over 4 dollars a barrel. Soybean meal only saw minor losses, while soybean oil posted a 146 point loss in the December contract as it followed crude oil.
• More pressure today has likely come from Brazil’s quickened planting pace which has now progressed to over 36%, up 18% from the previous week. While drought had previously delayed progress, planting is now only 4 points behind this time last year. The USDA estimates Brazilian production at 169 mmt, while CONAB’s estimate stands at 166 mmt.
• Today’s Export Inspections report was strong for soybeans as export demand remains firm. 2,394k tons of soybeans were inspected for export which was at the upper range of analyst estimates. This was slightly below last week’s inspections but put year-to-date inspections up 2% from last year.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continue to sell soybeans aggressively. As of October 22, funds sold 19,233 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 59,574 contracts. Since that date, fund activity is estimated to have been quiet with 1,000 contracts being bought in the past three days.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower alongside the rest of the grain complex, pressured by a sharply lower crude oil market. At the time of writing, crude is down well over four dollars per barrel after having gapped lower at the open. This appears to be tied to news that while Israel did indeed retaliate against Iran, they chose to attack military targets as opposed to oil facilities.
• Weekly wheat export inspections of 9.1 mb brought total 24/25 inspections to 349 mb, up 34% from 262 mb at this time last year. Inspections are currently outpacing the USDA’s forecast, with wheat exports projected at 825 mb, 17% higher than last year.
• The US ag attaché in Argentina has their estimate of the country’s 24/25 wheat production at 18 mmt, in line with the current USDA forecast. However, their wheat export estimate is slightly higher than the USDA’s, at 12 mmt compared to 11.5 mmt.
• According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export price ended last week at $232 per mt, which is down from $234 the week prior. This is also below their ag ministry’s suggested price floor of $240 per mt. Furthermore, SovEcon has reported that Russia shipped 1.02 mmt of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 1.0 mmt of that total.
• In a report from the Rosario Grains Exchange, Argentina’s wheat exports for the 24/25 season could reach 13.3 mmt, potentially the second highest total on record. They also anticipate a harvest of 19.5 mmt, exceeding both USDA and attaché estimates.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were mixed on the day with the November contract adding on 9 cents while the December contract lost 12 cents. 2025 contracts were mostly higher led by the February contract which closed 19 cents higher to $19.81.
• The spot trade for dairy products was pretty stagnant on the day with both cheese and whey unchanged at $1.8850/lb and $0.6050/lb respectively.
• Spot butter was the only product to see any movement, losing 2 cents to close at $2.6750/lb. Powder was unchanged at $1.3750/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were uneventful with no trading volume for 2024 contracts today. The 2024 Class IV average was unchanged at $20.76.
• News may be quiet this week on the dairy side with no reports due out this week.

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Author

Brandon Doherty