CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Harvest pressure and technical selling pushed the corn market lower to end the week as the corn market saw marginal losses. December corn futures lost 2 ¾ cents to 419, and March slipped 2 ¼ cents to 435 ¾. For the week, December corn futures finished lower for the third consecutive week, losing 3 cents this week.
• December futures again met resistance just above 420, where selling pressure emerged and buyers stepped aside. The soft close and lower weekly trend could encourage additional selling into next week.
• Long-range forecasts are holding temperatures above normal and precipitation below average into the middle of the month. The favorable harvest conditions will likely keep harvest pressure limiting the market.
• The additional 200 mb of corn supply from Tuesday’s Grain Stocks report will remain burdensome in the corn market, despite the lower trend in yield. Harvest will still push a large amount of supply into the pipeline as end-users try and digest both old and new crop bushels.
• With the government shutdown curbing market data and reports, traders will look for outside support or fresh bullish news to spark rallies.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed in the red on the day after looking to have found some momentum at midday. November soybeans lost 5-3/4 cents to $10.18-00 while the March contract was down 4 cents to $10.51-1/4.
• The market will continue to monitor the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi as the two leaders will likely discuss soy products.
• S&P Global has lowered their U.S. soybean yield projection by 0.8 bpa to 53 bpa. This compares to StoneX at 53.9 bpa and the USDA at 53.5 bpa.
• Rain is expected for parts of the Western Corn Belt next with some areas seeing up to 2 inches of moisture. This may risk harvest delays.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for a new farmer support program amid weak Chinese demand, though details remain uncertain given the government shutdown.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed mostly lower today, with the exception being December Chicago, which gained 1/2 cent to 515-1/4. Meanwhile, Dec Kansas City lost 2 cents to 497, and MIAX was down 3/4 cent at 559-3/4. A lack of fresh, friendly news, along with increasing global production estimates, kept pressure on the wheat complex today.
• Taiwan Flour Milling Group purchased 80,000 mt of U.S. HRW, soft white, and durum wheat for late-November to early-December shipment.
• Russia had exported 5.7 mmt of grain during the month of September, which was down 28% year over year. Of that total, wheat accounted for 5.1 mmt. Russia’s agriculture ministry has reduced their export tax to 493.4 rubles/mt, a drop of 20%, in an effort to stimulate more exports.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 93% of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated good to excellent. This is up 4% from the week prior. Additionally, the BAGE increased their Argentine wheat production estimate earlier this week to 22 mmt – the USDA’s last forecast, for reference, was 19.5 mmt.
• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has increased their estimate of 25/26 world grain production by 10.1 mmt to 2.97 bmt. Total grain stocks are forecasted to rise 1.6 mmt to 900.2 mmt. Wheat stocks specifically are projected to increase 2.4 mmt to 320.3 mmt, in part due to good harvests in Russia and Canada.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk prices were seen weakening on the day despite a strong spot cheese trade. November futures lost 36 cents on the day to close at $16.94.
• Spot cheese found some buyer, bidding the price up 3.25 cents to $1.78/lb. Whey lost a penny to go home at $0.63/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were quiet with no trading volume for remaining 2025 contracts. December futures added 5 cents to $15.80 today.
• Spot butter was unchanged from the day prior at $1.75/lb. Powder closed a penny higher to $1.16/lb.
• Due to the government shutdown, there is no Dairy Products report this afternoon, and it has been delayed until further notice.

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Author

John Heinberg