CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• December corn futures pushed through resistance at the $4.90 levels and saw a rounds of short covering and technical buying to post the contracts highest daily close since Aug 8, gaining 11 ½ cents on the day.
• Weekly export sales of corn were strong at 1.82 mmt (71.5 mb) of old crop and 611,400 mt (24.1 mb) of new. Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week, which was expected. China did step into the corn market with a small purchase (5.5 mb) of U.S. corn.
• Export shipments were 24.1 mb last week, which was below the pace needed to reach USDA export targets. Corn sales now total 556 mb for 2023-24, up 9% from last year.
• U.S. harvest was 23% complete last week, and pace should continue to be firm this week. The forecast still looks overall friendly to keep harvest moving along at a good pace. Harvest pressure will limit the corn market as fresh supplies pressure the basis and the cash market.
• The corn market rally may still be limited as premiums for Brazilian corn have slipped recently, keeping Brazilian corn still cheaper than U.S. bushels on the export market. Brazilian corn exports for 2023 through September are on record pace, and October exports are expected to reach another record near 8.9 MMT.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher following a lower open and continued to hold above support at the 12.56 level. Technically, soybeans are oversold and weather concerns in South America could push prices higher. Soybean meal ended higher, while soybean oil closed lower.
• A week from today is the October WASDE report and it is possible that soybean production gets increased based off early yield estimates, which may be higher than expected. Even with a slight increase in production, stocks will be very tight, and Brazil may be facing some weather troubles due to the El Nino pattern occurring.
• The northern region of Brazil is currently too dry, but in the South, it is far too wet to plant with floods occurring and 4 to 9 inches of rain forecast over the next 10 days. With US ending stocks slated to be so tight, any weather impact on Brazil’s soybean crop could be very friendly for prices.
• Export sales for soybeans were decent with the USDA reporting increases of 29.7 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 24.7 mb were below the 35.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were China, Spain, and Bangladesh.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The USDA reported an increase of 10.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 14.3 mb were above the 13.9 mb pace necessary to meet the 700 mb export goal. However, total export commitments at 347 mb are down 14% from last year.
• The jump in wheat today was likely both technical and fundamental in nature. From the technical perspective, wheat was oversold and due for a correction to the upside. That may have been initiated on the fundamental side by more war premium being added into the marketplace. A Russian missile attack was said to have killed 49 civilians; additionally, there are reports that a vessel on the way to Ukraine struck a sea mine, but this is currently unconfirmed.
• On top of the above news, there is also talk of UK intelligence warning that Russia may be planting additional mines, meant to target civilian vessels. Meanwhile, there are reports that Germany will send air defenses to Ukraine to thwart Russian attacks on grain shipments.
• Also helping wheat today were higher Matif futures, and a lower US Dollar Index. As of this writing, the index is headed for a second consecutive lower close. Above 106 currently, it does remain at a relatively high level, but if the dollar continues to decline, it should ease pressure on US exports.
• Western Argentina and Australia remain too dry. Rains last week in Argentina were not enough to replenish soil moisture levels. According to the Rosario Exchange, they need about 15-20 milliliters of rain to stabilize the crop, but they are expected to get less than 10 ml over the next several days (according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange).

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The US spot butter market has finished higher in 13 out of the last 14 sessions. Thursday’s trade took it up 5.50c to $3.4850/lb, which is a new record high.
• The cheese market also found steady bidding that took blocks up 0.50c to $1.6850/lb while barrels gained 1.75c to $1.56/lb.
• Class IV futures were mostly higher on light volume. The November contract garnered 8 cents to push to $20.75.
• Spot butter gained another penny to push to another all-time high of $3.43/lb while powder fell a half cent.
• September Class III futures settled at $18.39, while Class IV finished at $19.09. Those are up $1.20 and $0.18 cwt from last month, respectively.

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Author

Amanda Brill