CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A bearish USDA October Crop Production report sent corn futures limit down for part of the session before a late soybean rally helped lift prices off their lows. December corn lost 20 ½ cents to 479 ¾, and March futures finished 21 cents lower to 494 ½. For the week, December corn fell 18 cents.
• USDA raised its 2026 corn yield estimate by 2.6 bpa to 181.2 bpa, well above trade expectations. The higher yield pushed projected production to 16.034 billion bushels, up 234 mb from September.
• Despite upward adjustments to demand, larger production boosted projected 2026/27 ending stocks to 1.849 billion bushels, an increase of 249 mb from last month. The stocks-to-use ratio rose to 11.3%, signaling a more comfortable supply outlook and adding pressure to futures.
• Export demand remains a concern, with outstanding sales running 34% behind last year. However, corn inspections are 4% ahead of last year, indicating shipments have started the marketing year on solid footing. Traders will watch whether lower prices generate additional export demand to help absorb the larger crop.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher in an impressive comeback from lows following the bearish WASDE report that brought corn limit down for a time. The report was only slightly bearish with a yield increase and small increase in ending stocks, but this caused an initial panic paired with the sharp increase in corn yield.
• November soybeans gained 4-1/2 cents to $12.92 but made a low of $12.69-3/4 directly after the USDA report. March soybeans gained 4-3/4 cents to $13.18-3/4 while December soybean meal ended significantly higher by $8.00 to $365.60 and December soybean oil gained 0.10 cents to 68.02 cents. December crude oil is unchanged at $90.75 a barrel.
• USDA raised its soybean yield estimate to 53.1 bpa from 52.8 bpa in September, with planted acreage unchanged at 86.9 million acres. Production increased to 4.562 billion bushels. Exports were raised by 10 mb, limiting the increase in projected ending stocks to 5 mb, at 315 mb.
• Despite all of the volatility in the soy complex this week, November soybeans gained 13-3/4 cents while March gained 14 cents taking back nearly half of last week’s losses. December soybean meal gained $18.10 for the week while December soybean oil lost 0.60 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures posted double-digit losses across all three U.S. classes following a bearish WASDE report. Prices recovered from session lows alongside corn, but a firm U.S. dollar and lower Paris milling wheat futures added pressure. In the December contract, Chicago lost 12-1/4 cents to 671, Kansas City dropped 17 cents to 719-1/4, and MIAX fell 10-3/4 cents to 695-1/4.
• USDA raised U.S. 2026/27 wheat ending stocks to 740 mb from 717 mb in September, near the high end of trade estimates. Global 2025/26 ending stocks increased 1 MMT to 281.6 MMT, contrary to expectations for a slight decline. For 2026/27, global carryout fell 0.3 MMT to 276.0 MMT, versus expectations for an increase.
• Other notable features of today’s report include the USDA reducing US wheat exports by 25 mb to 750 mb. Additionally, they lowered Russian wheat exports by 3.0 mmt to 40.0 mmt. Ukraine’s wheat exports were unchanged at 12.5 mmt. Meanwhile, exports from Argentina and Canada were both up 0.5 mmt, partially offsetting the Russia reduction.
• According to the USDA, as of October 6, winter wheat acres experiencing drought conditions decreased 4% from last week to 53%. During the same timeframe, spring wheat area in drought dropped 9% to 39%.
• The Russian deputy agriculture minister stated that their nation may export about 1.5 mmt of grain through Baltic ports during the month of October. If realized, that would be equal to their total shipments through Baltic ports during the whole 25/26 season.
• Soft wheat planting is just getting underway in France. According to FranceAgriMer, sowing is 4% complete, which is slightly behind last year’s pace and the five-year average.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were seen falling slightly on the day after the recent upswing in prices this week. November futures fell 4 cents to close at $16.10.
• Spot cheese improved 1.50 cents to close out the week at $1.41875/lb. Whey moved a penny higher to finish at $0.86/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were mostly higher on the day as powder and butter inched ahead. November futures gave back 8 cents today to close at $20.82.
• Spot butter caught some buyers today, improving 2.50 cents to close at $1.2750/lb. Powder closed 0.75 cents higher on the day to finish at $2.2675/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg