CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong buying support in the soybean and wheat markets helped support corn futures on Monday as prices finished with marginal gains. December corn gained 2 ¾ cent to 434 ¼ and March added 2 ¾ cents as well to 446 ¾.
• Weekly export inspections for corn remain very strong. As of the week ending October 30, US Exporter shipped 1.669 MMT (65.7 mb) of corn. Currently, the 2025-26 marketing year is off to its fastest shipping pace in 45 years and trending 64% ahead of last year.
• The technical barrier over the corn market remains at the 200-day moving average, near 437 for December futures. If prices could push through this area, the market could see technical buying, pushing prices higher in the near term.
• USDA announced that, despite the government shutdown, the November WASDE report will be released on November 14. The information will give the market some direction regarding yield, and demand expectations as the harvest is getting closer to completion.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following a bullish announcement from the Trump Administration regarding China. November soybeans were up 20 cents to $11.19-3/4 while March soybeans gained 16-1/2 cents to $11.40-1/4. December soybean meal was down $0.80 to $320.80 and December soybean oil gained 1.16 cents to 49.84 cents. November soybeans are up $1.18 since October 14.
• Today’s bullishness came from an announcement that China would rescind their retaliatory tariffs on the US that were announced since March 4. In addition, China has said that it would buy an additional 12 mmt of soybeans in the last two months of this year, and then at least 25 mmt for the next three years.
• While the government shutdown has the Commitment of Traders report suspended indefinitely, it was estimated that funds bought back a whopping 58,000 contracts of soybeans last week as of October 31. This would leave them with a net long position that may be near 50,000 contracts.
• Today’s export inspections report was solid for soybeans at 35.5 million bushels for the week ending October 30. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 286 mb, which is down 40% from the previous year, and the USDA has estimated that soybean exports will total 1.685 bb for 25/26, which would be down 10% from the previous year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed higher again today, led by the Kansas City class deferred contracts; this could be due to more talk that China is looking to purchase US HRW wheat. The sharply higher soybean market and higher close for MATIF futures also lent a helping hand. Dec Chi gained 9-1/2 cents to close at 543-1/2, KC was up 7-1/2 to 531-3/4, and MIAX closed 5-1/2 higher at 558-1/2.
• Weekly export inspections for wheat totaled 12.9 mb – this brings total 25/26 inspections to 435 mb, up 21% from last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s estimated pace. Total 25/26 exports are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• SovEcon is estimating Russian wheat production at 87.8 mmt, which would be above the USDA’s most recent (September) forecast at 85 mmt. SovEcon also increased their Russian wheat export forecast by 0.4 mmt to 43.8 mmt; the USDA figure comes in at 45 mmt.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $230.50/mt on a FOB basis, which is unchanged from the previous week. Additionally, IKAR raised their estimate of Russia’s October wheat exports from 5.5 mm to a range of 5.7-5.8 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The cheese market started the week off on the wrong foot, as sellers aggressively pushed 2 loads onto the market. Blocks fell 10.25c and barrels lost 5.50c.
• The drop in cheese takes the block/barrel average back down to $1.7075/lb, back to the middle of the range. Futures reacted negatively to the move.
• Second month butter futures hit a new multi-year low after the spot price fell 3.25c to $1.5775/lb. This weighed on Class IV futures.
• It was announced that the USDA will release a September milk production report on November 10, 2025 (originally scheduled for October 22).
• Tomorrow is the next Global Dairy Trade auction event.  Recent events have seen the index fall in 9 out of 11 events.

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Author

John Heinberg