CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market posted a slight gain for the third consecutive session. With overall market news remaining quiet, traders squared positions in anticipation of today’s presidential election results.
• Corn futures have been trading within a narrow range since the end of October, specifically between 409 and 420 in the December contract since October 28. Throughout this period of sideways movement, managed funds have significantly reduced their short positions in the corn market, potentially positioning for the next move following today’s election.
• Corn demand has held steady in recent weeks, lending support to prices. The USDA announced a flash sale this morning, with unknown destinations purchasing 124,000 metric tons (4.9 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.
• In the weekly USDA Crop Progress report, corn harvest was reported at 91% complete, well above the 5-year average of 75%, as dry weather has helped accelerate the harvest pace. With harvest nearing completion, harvest pressure on the market will likely ease.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher, led again by the front months, while deferred months trailed. Trade was relatively quiet today as analysts await election results. Soybean meal ended mixed, while soybean oil was lower. Strong export demand before the election has been a key source of support, along with favorable crush numbers.
• This Friday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report. StoneX has just revised its soybean crop estimates significantly lower from last month, with yield estimates adjusted to 52.6 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa. It would not be surprising if the USDA also revises its estimate lower after recent dry periods likely impacted yields.
• Yesterday, the USDA’s Crop Progress report showed that 94% of the soybean crop has been harvested, up from 89% last week and above the 85% average for this time of year. With harvest nearly complete, it’s possible that harvest lows are already in.
• In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean crop is reportedly 54% planted, compared to 36% last week and 51% a year ago. This is the second-highest planting percentage for this time of year, despite an earlier drought that had caused some delays.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three US wheat classes closed in the green today, supported by another drop in the US Dollar Index to two-week lows. Additionally, December Chicago wheat appears to be building support around the 565 level after testing it over the past four sessions.
• According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat was 87% planted as of November 3, just below last year’s pace of 88% and the average of 89%. Additionally, 66% of the crop has emerged, behind last year’s 72% and the average of 71%. The crop was rated 41% good to excellent, up 3% from the previous week, likely reflecting recent rains in wheat-growing areas. This compares with 50% good to excellent a year ago.
• Russia’s grain harvest may fall by 20-22 mmt due to inclement weather, according to the Russian ag minister. The harvest estimate has been adjusted closer to 130 mmt, down from the previous 150 mmt.
• Despite anticipated declines in domestic production, South African wheat imports are still expected to fall 7% this season, according to the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. This is attributed to higher-than-normal stocks, which were boosted in recent months to take advantage of lower global prices. Stocks at the start of October totaled 753,000 mt, up 34% from the same time last year.
• As of November 4, Ukrainian farmers have planted 4.91 million hectares of winter grain, about 95% of the expected area, according to their ag ministry. Winter wheat, which accounts for roughly 95% of Ukraine’s total wheat production each year, is reported to be about 96% planted, covering 4.3 million hectares.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• November’s first Global Dairy Trade Auction improved 4.80% for its highest level since July 2022.
• Class III futures were weaker on the day despite strong global demand for dairy products. December futures closed 20 cents lower to $19.19.
• Spot cheese lost 3.50 cents to close at $1.81/lb which is its lowest close since May. Whey tacked on 1.25 cents to close at $0.6175/lb.
• Class IV futures were little moved on little to no trading volume. December futures improved 3 cents to $21.23.
• Spot butter was unchanged on Tuesday at $2.6750/lb while powder added 1.75 cents to go home at $1.3950/lb.
• There was a cattle recommendation today to hedge Q2 ’25 and Q3 ’25 cull cattle price risk.

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Author

John Heinberg