CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• It was a risk-off day in the grain markets, with strong selling pressure across both the wheat markets and the soy complex. The weakness spilled over into corn, pushing futures moderately lower by the close. December corn lost 6 ½ cents to 428 ¾, and the March contract fell 6 ½ to 443.
• Multiple markets saw selling pressure after the announcement of 153,000 job cuts in October. This total was up 183% from September and the worst October total since 2003. The large number triggered the risk off trade in most equity and commodity markets on Thursday.
• Despite the selling pressure, the corn market stayed in a consolidation pattern as the December contract traded around the 430-price level and March around the 445-price level for the past 9 trading sessions.
• Corn demand remains extremely strong as harvest wraps up.  Weekly ethanol production hit a new all-time high for the week in the EIA report on Wednesday.  Weekly export inspections are at the strongest pace in 45 years.
• The U.S. Dollar index traded lower on the session; a renewed downward trend in the U.S. Dollar index should help support grain markets.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures came under heavy selling pressure as long liquidation emerged, fueled by weakness in the soybean meal market and uncertainty over Chinese demand. With the market previously in overbought territory, a technical correction appeared overdue. January futures dropped 26 ¾ cents to 1107 ½, while March dropped 24 ½ cents to 1117 ½.
• The Argentina oilseed workers and crushing companies reached a wage agreement to avoid a potential strike.  The soybean meal market triggered some profit taking as plants in the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal will stay in operation.
• The market is concerned that China’s modest purchases of U.S. soybeans could make the projected 12 million metric ton target challenging to achieve, with U.S. prices losing competitiveness against the cheaper Brazilian soybean supply.
• Weather forecast for Brazil looks overall supportive for planting of the 2025-26 soybean crop.  Rainfall is expected in central Brazil this week, which should help support the planting pace.
• Despite reducing tariffs on most agriculture goods, China has kept a 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans, which impacts the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans in Chinese markets.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The commodity complex was under pressure in a risk-off session, mirroring weakness in the broader stock market. Wheat was no exception, posting double-digit losses in both Chicago and Kansas City. Some of the selling may also reflect a technical correction from overbought territory, as both markets show sell crossover signals on the daily stochastics. All things considered, Minneapolis futures held up comparatively better. December Chi lost 19-1/4 cents to 535-1/2, KC was down 17-3/4 at 522-1/4, and MIAX gained 3/4 cent to 557.
• A Bloomberg analyst survey suggested that wheat export sales may have totaled 750,000 mt, which would be well above the 375,000 mt figure from a year ago. Estimates ranged from 500-900,000 mt. The official export sales report has been delayed due to the government shutdown, which has now lasted well over a month.
• It has been reported that China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat for December shipment (totaling 120,000 mt). Half of the purchase was for soft white wheat, while the remainder was spring wheat. Additionally, yesterday Beijing announced that starting November 10 some tariffs on U.S. ag products would be removed, including a 15% tariff on U.S. wheat.
• India’s 26/27 wheat production is estimated at 144.4 mmt, according to one private forecast. Furthermore, this group said India’s wheat planted area is anticipated at 32.7 million hectares – this would be relatively steady with the 25/26 season. Being able to maintain the sown area is reportedly due to a governmental minimum support price program, which incentivizes wheat production.
• Recent precipitation has reduced drought conditions in U.S. wheat growing regions. As of November 4, U.S. spring wheat areas in drought decreased 1% from the previous week to 17%. During the same period, winter wheat acres experiencing drought fell from 40% to 38%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Nearby Class III futures gave back gains from this morning to close with small gains or losses. December fell 6 cents to $16.96.
• Spot cheese held small gains to close right at $1.68/lb while whey gave back a penny to settle at $0.71/lb.
• Most Class IV futures were unchanged today with some small losses out into the 2026 contracts. December settled at $13.72.
• Butter managed to closed unchanged but enters Friday down 13.75 cents on the week. Powder was up 0.75 cents for a $1.1375/lb finish.

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Author

John Heinberg