- It was a choppy session in the corn market as prices failed to follow through Friday’s strong technical close. December corn finished the day unchanged with disappointing price action, failing to hold the highs of the session. Hedge pressure still limits the corn market, despite strength seen in both the soybean and wheat markets.
- Corn export demand is still a concern for the market. The USDA did announce a flash sale of corn to Mexico; Mexico bought 289,575 mt (11.4 mb) for the current marketing year. Mexican demand has been good, but these sales are routine and fail to move the market overall.
- Weekly export inspections for corn were within expectations. Last week, the US inspected 535,000 MT (21.1 mb) for shipment. Total inspections are at 216 mb for the current marketing year, up 23% from last year, and slightly ahead of expected USDA export pace.
- USDA will release the harvest pace on Monday afternoon with the USDA crop progress report. Last week, 71% of the corn crop was harvested, and expectation should have moved into the last 20% remaining for this week. The harvest pace and selling pressure has limited the corn market.
- On November 9, the USDA will release the next Crop Production report. The market could be choppy this week with position squaring going into the report. Early expectations are for the USDA to slightly increase corn yield and production, which could add bushels back to an already heavy supply picture.
- Soybeans ended the day firmly higher for the fifth consecutively higher close. Support has mainly come from higher soybean meal, tight US ending stocks, and a concerning forecast for South American weather. Soybean oil was higher today but overall has trended lower since August.
- Export sales have picked up in this period that Brazil is running low on soybeans to ship as they are planting, and another sale was reported today of 126,000 metric tons for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. The increase in export demand has been complemented by the uptick in domestic crush demand.
- Export inspections today were also strong with 2,085k tons reported for soybeans which was near the upper range of analyst expectations. Thursday’s WASDE report may, however, show a decrease in exports as they are still behind last year. Analysts are expecting that the USDA might decrease the national soybean yield but also decrease exports which would leave the carryout potentially unchanged at 220 mb.
- A large part of this recent rally can likely be attributed to poor weather conditions in South America with Argentina and northern Brazil still dry, but southern Brazil receiving too much rain and flooding. So far, weather models are forecasting more of the same with hotter temperatures to come. Some Brazilian producers are either replanting their soybeans or opting to rip them up in favor of planting cotton.
- After trading both sides of unchanged, wheat managed a positive close despite a slightly higher US Dollar, poor export inspections (71,068 mt), and lower Matif futures. This may signal that wheat is trying to find a bottom and support at these lower levels.
- Traders are anticipating this week’s USDA report. With Russia estimating their own wheat crop at 93 mmt as of last week, it is possible that the USDA could make an upward revision from their 85 mmt crop estimate.
- Brazil is said to have 2.5 mmt of feed wheat on hand that is very competitive on the export market. Reportedly, it is around $212 per mt on a FOB basis for December shipment.
- According to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization, winter wheat growing areas in the northern hemisphere are expected to shrink in 2024 as a reflection of lower crop prices.
- Odesa was again attacked by Russia with missiles and drones. This damaged the port and wounded eight people, but the market seemed to brush it off as old news.
- Spot cheese was mixed with blocks gaining 3.50 cents on two loads traded while barrels lost 6 cents on eleven loads. Spot whey fell a quarter of a penny to close at $0.3850 on six loads traded.
- Class III futures struggled to hold on today closing 16-18 cents lower on December and January contracts. The 2024 Class III average has lost another 7 cents over the week to close at $18.34/cwt.
- Spot butter lost 9.75 cents on Monday in what continues to be a lackluster market after making new all-time highs almost a month ago. Futures trading was just as gruesome closing down anywhere from $1.80-$3.05/lb on November, December, and January futures. Spot powder lost a penny on the day to close at $1.1750/lb.
- Class IV was weaker on poor spot trading for butter. December futures lost 27 cents on the day on thin volume. The 2024 average sits at $19.44/cwt which is at a $1.10/cwt premium to Class III right now.
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