CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• December corn futures closed at the top of the day’s trading range and posted its highest close in nearly a month as buyers stepped into the corn market. The markets in general saw a rebalancing after last night’s election results, and the corn market benefited from some positive money flowing into it.
• The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn sales have remained strong, providing support to the corn market. A large portion of tomorrow’s sales are known from announced daily sales over the last week as Mexico and unknown destinations have been active buyers in the export market.
• Corn export sales could remain friendly and support the market. The available export supplies of corn in Brazil are limited, keeping the US the most competitive export market. For the month of October, Brazil corn export shipments were 6.4 mmt (252 MB), down 24% from last year, but still above the average for the month. Only 2% of that corn went to China, but non-China corn exports were up 25% year over year.
• Weekly ethanol production remained strong with production slightly higher week over week at 1.105 million barrels per day, up 5% over last year. A total of 111 mb of corn was used for production last week, which is still ahead of the target pace to reach USDA projections for the marketing year.
• The US dollar surged to its highest point since early July as it traded sharply higher after the election results. If the dollar index can maintain its strength, that could be a headwind for higher corn and commodity prices in general.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day mixed with the front months trading higher and deferred contracts slightly lower. Soybeans recovered sharply from overnight lows that were up to 21 cents lower following the election results and concerns over future tariffs. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was sharply higher.
• Trade estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. World ending stocks are expected to be lowered slightly.
• In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean crop is reportedly 53.3% planted, compared to 38% last week and 48% last year, according to Conab. This is the second-highest planting percentage for this time of year, despite an earlier drought that had caused some delays.
• The Argentina’s soybean production is expected to be revised slightly higher to 51.3 mmt from 51.0 mmt last month, with Brazil’s production expected to be lowered to 168.6 mmt from 169.0 mmt last month. South American weather has remained rainy and beneficial for this time of year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat ended mixed to slightly lower, showing resilience despite a strong surge in the US Dollar Index, which closed up 1.64 at 105.06, a level last seen in early July. Typically, wheat has an inverse relationship with the Dollar, making its performance, particularly with a close well off session lows, notable. Strength from higher US corn and Paris milling wheat likely supported today’s trade.
• With the presidential election over, traders will likely focus to tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s WASDE report. The Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut. Although no major changes are anticipated in US wheat numbers on Friday, global supply and demand figures could be a wildcard.
• The US southern plains are expected to get another two or three inches of rain by the end of the weekend, which should go a long way in reducing drought conditions. However, more will be needed as traders will be keeping a close eye on updates to the drought monitor map.
• Russian wheat stocks were at 38.7 mmt as of October 1, down 14% year-over-year, according to SovEcon. This decline is attributed to a combination of reduced production and record exports, which reached 15 mmt from July through September—a pace considered unsustainable.
• The European Commission reported a 32% drop in EU soft wheat exports year-over-year as of November 3. Exports since the season’s start on July 1 reached 7.76 mmt, down from 11.33 mmt a year ago. Nigeria was the top buyer at 1.26 mmt, followed by Egypt and Morocco with smaller volumes.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures suffered a third straight day of lower trading on Wednesday. December futures lost 17 cents to close at $19.02.
• Spot cheese continues to trend lower after losing an additional 3 cents today to close at $1.78/lb. Whey was unchanged at $0.6175/lb.
• Class IV futures followed the rest of the dairy market lower with 2025 contracts losing 1-23 cents on the day.
• Both spot butter and powder were unchanged on the day at $2.6750/lb and $1.3950/lb respectively.
• Spot butter was unchanged on Tuesday at $2.6750/lb while powder added 1.75 cents to go home at $1.3950/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill