CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished with marginal gains on the session, supported by above-expectation weekly corn export sales and a soybean oil rally to pull soybeans strongly higher on the session. A negative wheat market and producer selling likely limited gains in the corn market on the session.
• The USDA announced weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Last week, US exporters added 2.767 MMT of sales for the marketing year. This number exceeded the top end of expectations as Mexico was the largest buyer of US corn last week.
• USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market this morning. Unknown destination purchased 120,000 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the marketing year. The export pace has been very strong as total accumulated sales for the current marketing year are up 48% YOY and well ahead of expectations.
• USDA will release the next round of Crop Production forecasts with the WASDE report on Friday morning.  Expectations are for corn yield to be decreased slightly to 183.7 bu/ac and corn carry out to be lowered by 50 mb to 1.946 billion bushels. Regarding yields, 8 of the 17 analysts surveyed for the report raised the corn yield expectation. The key will be any adjustments being made to demand this early in the marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher after rebounding off yesterday’s post-election sell-off and ended the day trading above their 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month. Export sales were strong, but the primary source of support came from soybean oil. Soybean meal ended slightly higher but was well behind the gains in bean oil.
• December soybean oil gained 1.98 cents today or 4.27% ending at 48.32 cents, the highest level since early July. Support is thought to be coming from the hope that when Donald Trump takes office next year, he will increase tariffs on imported Chinese used cooking oil which would benefit soybean oil demand.
• Today’s export sales report for soybeans was strong and showed sales at the higher end of the trade range. The USDA reported an increase of 74.9 mb of soybean export sales for 24/25, and last week’s export shipments of 89.1 mb were well above the 33.4 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations. Primary destinations were to China, unknown destinations, and Egypt.
• Trade estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. World ending stocks are expected to be lowered slightly.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across the board, despite strength in corn and especially soybeans. Recent rains for much of the nation’s midsection, along with more in forecast, may be weighing on wheat futures. Additionally, Matif wheat futures were the downside leader again today, as the US market followed their lower close.
• The USDA reported an increase of 13.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and shipments last week fell below the 15.3 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 825 mb. However, sales commitments for 24/25 are up 18% from a year ago at 510 mb.
• Drought readings have improved for winter wheat growing areas after recent rains. According to the USDA, as of November 5, abought 57% of the estimated production area is experiencing drought. This is down 5% from a week ago. However, spring wheat areas actually worsened by 1% to 41% of the area in drought. Despite the improvements for winter wheat, the ratings are still generally high, and more rains will be needed to help ease the dryness.
• For tomorrow’s WASDE report, there are not expected to be major changes for wheat. US 24/25 ending stocks are anticipated to be unchanged at 812 mb, along with no change for global 223/24 carryout at 266.2 mmt. For 24/25, global ending stocks are expected to drop slightly from 257.7 to 256.8 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures closed green today after hitting some long-term lows, possibly running out of short-term selling pressure.
• This came despite a half-cent drop in the block/barrel average, but spot whey gained 1.25 cents to close at $0.63/lb.
• Class IV futures were still under pressure today with small losses for most contracts. January futures, however, fell 23 cents to break under $21.00.
• On no loads traded, spot butter fell 1.25 cents and powder fell a penny on Thursday.

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Author

Brandon Doherty