CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished lower on the day, pressured by heavy overall supplies, a strong US dollar and selling pressure in the wheat and crude oil markets.
• December corn futures failed to find some follow through buying after Friday’s USDA report. Despite the reduced yield and production, the corn carry out was only 8 mb below market expectations, which limited the market’s upside. Prices did hold support at 425 in the December contract, finishing in the middle of Friday’s price range.
• With the Veteran’s Day Holiday, the USDA will release weekly export inspections on Tuesday. The expectation for those shipments is for them to be in the 700,000 to 900,000 mt range.
• The corn market may be limited as it moves closer to the First Notice Day for December futures, and producers holding December basis contracts will need to either price those bushels or roll them to the March contract
• Managed funds have become long in the corn market for the first time since August 2023. They built a long position of approximately 22,000 contracts, completely erasing the record short position they held this past summer.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower after trading higher in the morning, which brought January futures up to the 100-day moving average before sliding back for the second consecutive day. Friday’s WASDE report was friendly with a cut to yield and a decrease in ending stocks. Despite these cuts, the US is still on track to produce a very large soybean crop.
• This morning, soy products initially moved in opposite directions, with soybean meal rising and soybean oil falling. However, both slipped throughout the day and closed lower, with soybean oil posting larger losses. Recent increases in crush have met demand for soybean oil but have created a surplus of soybean meal.
• Friday’s WASDE report showed soybean yields dropping more than expected, from 53.1 bpa last month to 51.7 bpa. As a result, total production declined to 4.461 billion bushels from 4.582 billion, with 24/25 US ending stocks falling to 470 million bushels from 550 million. Export demand was reduced by 25 million bushels despite strong recent sales, and global ending stocks also dropped, coming in below the lower range of analyst estimates.
• Friday’s CFTC report indicated that, as of November 5, funds had bought back just 2,114 contracts, leaving them net short 70,112 contracts. It’s estimated that funds have bought back an additional 28,000 contracts since then.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat was under pressure today and, though it still posted a negative close, managed to finish well above session lows. Much of the weakness stemmed from good rains that moved across the US winter wheat belt over the weekend, helping to alleviate drought conditions and improve crop prospects. Adding to the weakness, the US Dollar Index pushed to a new near-term high today.
• According to SovEcon, Russia exported 770,000 mt of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 720,000 mt of that total. This was well below the 1.12 mmt of wheat exported the prior week. Additionally, IKAR reported that Russian wheat export values ended last week at $228 per mt, down from $232 the week before and well below the government’s suggested $245 price floor.
• Ukrainian grain exports for the first week of November rose about 5% from the previous year to 902,000 mt, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. Since the season began on July 1, total grain exports have reached 15.3 mmt, up 52% from last year. Wheat alone accounts for 8 mmt of that total, which is an increase of 60% from last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The barrel cheese market fell 8c lower on Monday to $1.6875/lb, which is its lowest close since April 2024.
• The block cheese market fell another penny to $1.71/lb, taking the block/barrel average down to a close of $1.69875/lb.
• The consistent weakness and lack of buying demand in the US spot cheese and butter trade is keeping milk futures under pressure.
• On Monday, both December and January Class III closed back below the $19.00 threshold as premium continues to get taken out of the market.
• News this week should be quiet for dairy, with no monthly reports due out and no Global Dairy Trade auctions on the calendar.

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Author

Amanda Brill