CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Buyers stayed supportive of the corn market on Tuesday as the prospects of the government shutdown ending and more USDA information returning helped support the corn market. December corn gained 2 ¼ cents to 432, and March futures added 2 ½ cents to 447.
• With the government shutdown looking to end, the corn market will be watching the export sales numbers that will be released. With corn export inspections at the highest levels in years, the corn market will be looking for additional verification of export demand through the backlog of exports.
• The USDA will release its November WASDE report on November 14, marking the first update since September due to the government shutdown. Traders are anticipating potential volatility around the release. Expectations are for corn yield to be decreased in the report, but adjustments in the demand side of the balance sheet will likely have an impact on the market.
• Chinese Ag ministry on Monday announced the 2025-26 Chinese corn crop is expected to reach 300 MMT. China also reduced corn imports to 1.83 MMT from 3 MMT due to strong domestic supplies.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day with losses in the front months and gains in the deferred contracts. Prices fell from slight gains earlier in the day in quiet trade ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. November soybeans lost 2-3/4 cents to $11.13-1/4 and March lost 1-1/4 cents to $11.38. December soybean meal lost $3.10 to $316.90 and December soybean oil gained 0.52 cents to 51.10 cents.
• The government will likely reopen this week after the Senate successfully voted yesterday to end the shutdown. This will bring back export sales reports which will give a clearer indication of demand and the degree to which China has purchased US soybeans after pledging to buy 12 mmt this year.
• Yesterday’s export inspections for soybeans were good at 1,089k tons, but recent Chinese purchases were not on the report. This is compared to 985k last week. Top destinations were to Pakistan, Egypt, and Indonesia. Next week’s report should be updated to include the Chinese purchases.
• China’s COFCO has agreed to a billion-dollar deal with Brazilian soybean and palm oil producers. China will reportedly purchase nearly 20 million tons of product worth over 10 billion dollars. So far, China has only made modest purchases of U.S. soybeans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed higher across the board, apart from the front months of the HRW class. Daily gains, however, were limited, and light bear spreading was noted in both Chicago and Kansas City futures. The market is in a “wait and see” mode ahead of Friday’s WASDE report and the potential re-opening of the federal government. December Chicago gained 1/4 cent to 536, Kansas City was down 3-1/4 at 523-3/4, and MIAX was up 5-1/4 to 569-1/2.
• Despite the lack of official data, U.S. winter wheat planting is expected to be well over 90% complete. U.S. wheat ending stocks are anticipated to increase by about 25 mb to 867 mb as a result of the higher production forecast from the USDA on September 30, prior to the government shutdown.
• Domestic wheat harvest in Brazil has kept pressure on their prices. Data from Seab/Deral indicates that the region of Parana has completed 88% of harvest as of November 3. Meanwhile, Rio Grande do Sul has collected 42% of their wheat crop as of November 6.
• In their first estimate of the 2026 crop, SovEcon has estimated Russia’s wheat production for next season at 83.8 mmt. This would be a significant drop from their most recent 2025 forecast of 87.8 mmt. The reason for the decline is said to be due to expectations for a drop in wheat planting.
• The Russian Grain Union lobby indicated that their nation is considering implementing a 20 mmt grain export quota for the second half of the marketing year, compared to last year’s quota of 10.6 mmt. This would be put in effect from February 15, 2026 to June 30, 2026. According to SovEcon, Russian wheat exports during that period are forecast to reach about 15 mmt, and total grain exports are not expected to exceed the 20 mmt limit.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A +4.00% year-over-year growth print on the September US milk production report kept milk futures on the defensive Tuesday. US dairy cows are now up a whopping 228,000 head from last year.
• Cheese sellers were active in the spot trade, moving 10 loads of blocks and dropping the price 2.75c lower to get orders filled. The barrel market lost 2.25c.
• The lone bright spot during the session was dry whey, which saw a 2c higher bid to $0.75/lb. This is a new high for the move.
• Butter sellers took the price back down to $1.50/lb on 3 loads traded. Butter continues to struggle on production growth concerns.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg