CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures gave back yesterday’s gains and then some, as sellers stepped back into the corn market, fueled by a wetter near-term forecast in Brazil and improving weather in Argentina. December corn lost 7 ¾ cents on the session, but managed improving 3 cents on the week over last week overall.
• Improved chances of rainfall in Brazil weighed on soybean prices, and with wheat futures seeing additional selling pressure, the negative tone weighed on corn futures as well.
• The corn market has been supported by an improving demand tone. Ethanol grind has been ahead of expectations, and export sales have been more active. Weekly export sales last week were above expectations, and currently total export sales are 40% of the USDA export target. The 5-year average is 39%, so sales are back on track so far.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its forecast for corn planting estimates and raised their soybean planting totals. The exchange lowered its planting estimate to 7.1 million hectares, down .2 million from their last estimate. The return of rainfall in Argentina is allowing for land to be planted into soybeans, shifting away from corn and wheat.
• The corn market still struggles to find its footing as late harvest is triggering corn bushel movement and the hedge pressure limits potential for a strong near-term rally.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for a third consecutive day and have lost 55 cents since the recent high was posted on Wednesday. The recent rally in soybeans was caused by dry South American weather, and this recent sell off has been caused by wetter South American forecasts.
• Argentina has been receiving more favorable weather lately and is in a good place to be planting soybeans, and it is being reported that planted acreage for beans will increase by 500k acres. In Brazil, rain chances are improved, but still limited until Thanksgiving, and afterwards, it is expected to dry out again.
• With the prospect of a larger Argentinian soy crop next year, soybean meal has begun slipping from its recent highs. A large portion of their rally has been due to increased export demand, and that will likely change next year. Soybean oil has trended slightly higher, but is under pressure from crude oil.
• Yesterday’s export sales report featured a very large increase of 144.0 mb of soybeans for 23/24, which was a marketing year high and was in large part due to the big and consistent purchases from China over the past two weeks. In addition, a new sale to China was reported yesterday of 8.1 mb.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat continued its slide with all three classes lower on the day. As the complex followed corn and soybeans lower, KC made a fresh contract low, while Chicago held more of its value versus both Minneapolis and KC.
• Even though the crop benefited from October’s rainfall, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its estimate for Argentina’s wheat crop to 14.7 mmt, down from 15.4 mmt, primarily due to frost damage.
• With EU soft-wheat production seen at 125.8 mmt, a slight increase from last month’s estimate, EU crop analyst Strategie Grains reported that France may see a surplus in wheat and barley for 23/24 crop year.
• Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture in a regular tender bought 104,677 metric tons of food grade milling wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia.
• On the weather front, dry conditions continue to be a concern for much of the recently planted HRW wheat crop, which makes Sunday and Monday’s anticipated rain more significant. So far, 42.5% of the Kansas crop is estimated to be under severe drought according to Thursday’s release of the US Drought Monitor.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese pressured Class III lower with barrels losing 11 cents on 6 loads traded while blocks went unchanged on the day. Spot cheese closes out the week at $1.5800/lb.
• Class III dropped 47 and 45 cents on the December and January futures contracts respectively. December finishes the week at $16.79 while January closes at $16.79. Those two contract months saw the worst daily loss since July 25th.
• Spot butter finished out the week down 10.75 cents to lose 11 cents total week over week. Spot powder dropped 0.75 cents to close out the week at $1.1925/lb.
• Class IV was pressured by weaker spot trading dropping 30-33 cents in the December and January futures contracts.

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Author

Amanda Brill