CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong buying returned to the soybean and wheat market, which spilled over into the corn market as prices finished with moderate gains. December corn gained 4 ½ cents to 343 ¾, and March added 4 cents to 448.
• The corn market was still digesting Friday’s bearish Crop Production report as corn supplies were forecasted to be historically heavy. The forecast likely limited the potential upside in the market. The strong demand tone stays supportive of corn prices.
• The USDA released the weekly export inspection report on Monday morning. For the week ending November 13, the US exported 2.054 MMT (80.9 mb) and well above market expectations. This was the sixth largest export week for corn since 1982. Total inspections are at 624 mb, up 73% from last year.
• With the demand for corn for export, and strong ethanol grind, corn basis in some areas has been moving stronger, reflecting the demand and producers holding tight to some supplies. The cash market may likely drive the futures market in the near term.
• Brazil soybean planting has been running slightly behind pace versus last year, which can delay the key second crop corn planting and pushing the crop past peak weather dates. Talk of dry weather in some Brazil regions could help delay the planting pace or trigger replant for some soybeans.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher to kick off the week thanks to strong crush numbers and rumors of Chinese purchases. January soybeans gained 32-3/4 cents to $11.57-1/4 and March is up 27-1/4 cents to $11.63-1/4. December soybean meal was up $8.30 to $330.80 and December soybean oil was up 0.99 cents to 51.14 cents.
• There were rumors this morning that China had booked additional US soybeans today, and this followed a statement from President Trump saying that China was on track to buy more US beans before spring. They still have a number of soybeans to purchase before the end of the year to fulfill their agreement.
• Today’s NOPA crush report was extremely strong at 227.6 million bushels crushed in October. This was an all-time monthly record and was up 14% from a year ago. It was also above all analyst trade estimates which averaged at 209.5 mb. Soybean oil stocks were 1.305 billion pounds and were up 21.5% from last year.
• Today’s export inspections were ok for soybeans, but China was again not listed on the report. Inspections totaled 43.2 mb for the week ending November 13 which put total inspections for 25/26 at 372 mb which is down 43% from the previous year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed with double-digit gains for Chicago and Kansas City futures. Wheat may have been pulled higher by the sharply higher soybean market, additional Black Sea region war premium, and a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures (some MATIF wheat contracts posted bullish key reversals today). December Chi gained 17 cents to close at 544-1/4, KC was up 13-1/2 at 528-3/4, and MIAX closed 9 higher at 573-3/4.
• Weekly wheat export inspections came in at 9.1 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 454 mb, up 19% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s projected pace; total 25/26 exports are estimated at 900 mb, up 9% from last year.
• Wheat was also pushed higher today on news of a rail attack over the weekend in Poland, near the Ukraine border. An explosion is reported to have done damage to the railway but did not cause any fatalities. In any case, this railway was a key military supply network for Ukraine, and this may have injected some risk premium back into the marketplace.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $229/mt, which was down $3 from the week before. Additionally, IKAR have kept their Russian November wheat export forecast unchanged at 5.2-5.4 mmt, though SovEcon did lower their projection to 4.6 mmt.
• Egypt is said to be working towards self-sufficiency rather than relying on wheat imports. According to their supply ministry, they have targeted the purchase of 5 mmt of domestic wheat next season. Typically, their nation imports roughly 10 mmt of wheat per year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed on Monday with December being the biggest mover as it settled 17 cents higher at $16.85.
• Divergent moves in blocks and barrels led to the average falling 0.6250 cents to $1.5850/lb. Spot whey was up a half cent to $0.7850/lb.
• Class IV futures were mostly unchanged with some small, single-digit moves. December was unchanged at $14.24.
• Butter fell 2.50 cents today on two loads trade while powder was up 1.25 cents to move to $1.1950/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill