TFM Daily Market Summary 11-19-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn closed lower across the board, in tandem with soybeans and wheat. Corn again appears to be a follower of the bean market, which itself is correcting from technically overbought territory. December corn lost 7 cents to 429-3/4, while March was down 8 cents at 441-1/2.
  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 321 million gallons for the week ended Nov 14 (up from 316 million prior week), but down 1.7% year-ago. Used 109 million bushels of corn; met expectations.
  • S&P Global has projected that U.S. farmers will reduce U.S. corn plantings in 2026 by 3.8% compared to 2025 while increasing soybean plantings. They project corn plantings at 95.0 million acres down by 3.7 million from 2025.
  • U.S. corn exports hit record 6.4 million metric tons in August (36% to Mexico, 22% to Japan, 9% to Colombia). This brought the 2024/25 marketing year total to 72.5 mmt, up 4% over the prior record from 2020/21.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower following yesterday’s reversal as futures remain overbought. January soybeans were down 17-1/4 at $11.36-1/4 and March was down 15-3/4 cents to $11.44-1/2. December soybean meal led the complex lower and was down $8.10 to $318.90 and December soybean oil was down 1.07 cents to 51.10 cents.
  • This morning, it was announced that China purchased 330,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery during the 25/26 marketing year. China has purchased approximately 3 mmt of soybeans since meeting with President Trump but still needs to purchase 12 mmt this year to honor their agreement.
  • President Trump’s administration is reportedly considering delaying its proposed cuts in incentives for imported biofuels for one to two years. This comes from pressure from oil refiners who say the move could raise costs and tighten fuel supplies. This delay could be harmful to U.S. farmers and biofuel producers.
  • Soybean oil bucked the trend yesterday, breaking higher on October crush data: record 227.647 million bushels crushed, but oil stocks much lower than last year — signaling strong demand that may lift soybeans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat posted losses amongst all three futures classes. December Chicago closed 9-3/4 cents lower at 536-3/4, Kansas City was down 10-3/4 cents to 515-1/2, and MIAX lost 1-1/2 cents to 581-1/4. Pressuring the market was a lower MATIF close, a jump higher for the U.S. Dollar Index, and pressure from lower corn and soybean futures. It appears to have been a broader risk off session with cattle, crude oil, and the stock market all trading lower as well.
  • U.S. wheat census exports for August: 99 mb, up 10% year-over-year and highest August total in nine years. June-August cumulative: 248 mb, up 14% y/y and a five-year high.
  • Ukraine is estimating their 25/26 wheat production will reach 23 mmt, which is equal to the USDA forecast. Ukraine is also projecting 25/26 exports at 17 mmt, which is higher than the USDA guess of 15 mmt. According to their economy ministry, they will not restrict wheat exports for the remainder of the marketing year.
  • U.S. wheat stays pressured as it’s priced high globally. Argentina and Ukraine FOB offers ~$208–$214/mt; Russia, France, Germany ~$224–$230/mt. U.S. HRW offers $245–$262/mt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III milk futures fell during today’s session, with the December contract dropping 33 cents to close at $16.63.
  • Spot cheese declined by 0.125 cents, closing at $1.58625/lb., while spot whey remained unchanged at $0.7850lb.
  • Spot butter declined another 4.5 cents, closing at $1.480/lb. while spot powder fell 1.75 cents to close at $1.1775/lb.
  • Class IV futures continued to pull back, with the December contract down 35 cents to close at $13.85.

 

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates