Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 23, 2023: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 24, 2023: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00.

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn ended the day slightly higher for the second consecutively higher close with support from higher soybeans and expectations for dry Brazilian weather. Corn futures remain rangebound, and trade has been relatively quiet ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
• Corn futures have been essentially gridlocked over the past few months as the expectation of large US production in the ballpark of 15.23 billion bushels weighs on prices, but the good domestic and export demand levels have simultaneously kept prices supported.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released the Crop Progress report which showed the corn harvest at 93% complete which was below the 5-year average by a few points and below the average trade guess. Michigan and Pennsylvania are behind schedule due to late rains with 30% of the crop left to harvest.
• While no export sales were reported today, a sale of 4.1 mb was reported yesterday to Mexico for the 23/24 year, and yesterday’s export inspections brought total inspections 24% above the previous year. Corn export sales overall are now 33% higher than a year ago.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of up and down trade that took prices from as much as 21 cents higher, down to only a penny higher, only to rally again into the close. Drier forecasts for Brazilian weather has been supportive. Soybean meal ended the day lower in the front months, while soybean oil was higher.
• Last Friday, forecasts were calling for significant rains throughout the driest areas of Brazil, but updated forecasts are now only calling for some scattered showers, not the soaking rains that had been expected. In addition, temperatures are expected to remain very hot which would further stress the soy crop.
• In the US, domestic demand has been strong for soybean crush, and the USDA is estimating that the processing value of soybeans in Illinois is $17.77 a bushel which is high enough to keep processors incentivized to buy soybeans.
• Brazilian soybean planting for 23/24 is now estimated at 68% complete as of November 16 and has advanced just 7 points from the previous week, way below the pace of 80% from last year. These planting delays are causing some producers to plant cotton instead, and the delays will impact corn planting as well.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three wheat classes ended the day higher after finding support down near Monday’s lows. Additional support came early in the day from stronger soybeans and corn, which later gave up much of their gains.
• The USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report Monday afternoon, which showed that 95% of the winter wheat crop has been planted versus 98% last year. Emergence came in at 87% versus last year’s 86% and 85% on average. 48% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, up one point from last week and 16% ahead of last year.
• Ukraine’s Ag Ministry said that the country’s winter wheat crop is 92% planted, and AK-Inform, a crop analyst, raised their forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports to 13 mmt, which is just above the USDA’s estimate of 12 mmt.
• US wheat export demand and prices have been greatly affected by low export prices out of Russia and the Black Sea.  Russia continues to be cheapest among world exporters, and the pressure has affected Matif futures as well which are near a five-month low.
• While many US winter wheat areas have seen some moisture, HRW areas remain dry and could use more to recover from the deficit. This continued lack of moisture and low prices may be leading to some short covering of the fund’s large short positions, supporting in prices.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese lost 1.25 cents on the day for a total of 3.75 cents lost over the week. Cheese was down 9.70% on the Global Dairy Trade Auction, continuing to be a choppy market heading into the end of the year.
• Class III prices were in the green to start the day before finishing mixed on the day. Spot cheese and whey pressured Class III in what continues to be a lackluster market heading into the holiday season.
• Spot butter was down 1.10% on the GDT Auction but gained 1.25 cents in the spot market on 8 loads traded. Spot powder was down 2 cents but whole milk powder on the GDT was up 1.90%. 
• Class IV prices followed Class III in finishing mixed on the day. Mixed fundamentals and reports in the market are the driving force for what we’re seeing play out with prices.

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Author

Amanda Brill