Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 23, 2023: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 24, 2023: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00.

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Weakness in the soybean market and technical selling pressured corn futures lower on the session. December corn lost 1 ¼ cents for the day. After early session strength, corn prices failed at overhead resistance, which triggered some selling pressure before the Thanksgiving Day break.
• Corn futures still lack overall news to push one direction or another. December futures have been holding and trading around the 470 level for the month of November.
• December grain options expire on Friday, which could lead to volatile trade going into the weekend. Prices can move to areas of large open interest, and for December corn the 470 call and put strike seems to be holding the largest number of open contracts.
• This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 128,000 mt of corn to unknown destinations for the current marketing year. The announced daily sales are encouraging, but remain small in size, and failed to move the market. Weekly export sales will be released on Friday with the Thanksgiving Day holiday tomorrow.
• Over the weekend, the South American weather forecast for Argentina and Brazil will remain a focus. Improvement in some rainfall forecasts have helped pressure soybeans the past couple days, but the overall pattern is looking to stay dry. The weather in December going into January will be very key for both soybean and corn markets.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat market had a mixed close with small gains in Chicago, but losses in KC and Minneapolis futures. Early strength stemmed from a new Russian attack on Odesa in Ukraine as well as a USDA announcement that 110,000 mt of wheat was sold to China for the 23/24 marketing year. However, strength faded in tandem with soybean futures pulling the grain complex lower.
• Funds still hold a large net short wheat position. Short covering may become more of a factor if there is more friendly news to drive wheat higher.
• From July 1 to November 19, EU soft wheat exports have declined 19% year over year to 11.6 mmt. This compares with 14.3 mmt last year. Additionally, there are concerns about weather in parts of Europe with too much rain causing issues, especially in France.
• A UN agency has stated that Ukraine may be unable to meet wheat demand, both domestic and export, if Russian infrastructure attacks continue. According to the UN human rights office, since mid-July there have been 31 attacks on Ukrainian grain production and export facilities. To add to the problem, eastern European farmers are said to be protesting the import of grain from Ukraine. Nearly 300 trucks are blocking cargo traffic at one border crossing.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat market had a mixed close with small gains in Chicago, but losses in KC and Minneapolis futures. Early strength stemmed from a new Russian attack on Odesa in Ukraine as well as a USDA announcement that 110,000 mt of wheat was sold to China for the 23/24 marketing year. However, strength faded in tandem with soybean futures pulling the grain complex lower.
• Funds still hold a large net short wheat position. Short covering may become more of a factor if there is more friendly news to drive wheat higher.
• From July 1 to November 19, EU soft wheat exports have declined 19% year over year to 11.6 mmt. This compares with 14.3 mmt last year. Additionally, there are concerns about weather in parts of Europe with too much rain causing issues, especially in France.
• A UN agency has stated that Ukraine may be unable to meet wheat demand, both domestic and export, if Russian infrastructure attacks continue. According to the UN human rights office, since mid-July there have been 31 attacks on Ukrainian grain production and export facilities. To add to the problem, eastern European farmers are said to be protesting the import of grain from Ukraine. Nearly 300 trucks are blocking cargo traffic at one border crossing.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheddar barrels dropped 5.50 cents on the day to close at $1.4400/lb, while cheddar blocks went unchanged at $1.5900/lb. Cheese futures followed the spot market lower, with the January contract losing 1 cent on the day.
• Spot whey went unchanged, with no loads traded to close at $0.3975/lb. Whey sits just under the $0.4000/lb level, but is still above the 200-day moving average of $0.3328/lb.
• Class III didn’t give much hope on the day. The 2024 average settled at $18.08667/cwt, continuing its downtrend as we head into the end of the year.
• Spot butter gave back its gains from a day prior, down 3 cents to close at $2.5000/lb. Butter futures, however, had some positive with most contracts trading in the green. 
• Class IV milk saw light volume trading, which saw the December and February futures contracts lose 11 and 9 cents respectively.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg