Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 26: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00.
MARKET SUMMARY 11-24-2021
The feeder cattle market is breaking out to possibly challenge the contract highs. The cattle market in general has seen strong money flow this week after the USDA released the latest Cattle on Feed report. Total cattle numbers are starting to reflect overall tight supplies. This week the stronger cash market is providing strength in the live cattle market. Deferred live cattle futures have established new contract highs on a daily basis. This has pushed strong buying into the feeder cattle market. This strength has come in the face of a positive move in grain markets, reflecting the buying optimism in the feeder cattle market. Feeder cattle futures broke out technically this week and closed trade on Wednesday at their highest price levels since early September. Charts look to be in acceleration mode with strong buying that could be pointing to a retest of the contract high in January futures at $172.00.
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CORN HIGHLIGHTS: Corn futures ended the session with small losses posting hook reversals after moderate to strong gains of 7 to 8 cents in the morning session. Traders may have exited longs, established shorts, or both heading into a holiday weekend. December lost 0-3/4, closing at 5.79-3/4 and March gave up 2-3/4 to end the session at 5.90-1/2. December 2022 lost 1-1/4 to close at 5.58-1/4 after posting a new contract high of 6.65.
A negative looking bearish key reversal in the wheat market may have also weighed on corn futures late in the session. Strong basis levels and continued moderate to light selling by farmers provides underlying support. Strong ethanol margins are said to be the primary rationale for strong cash. Export sales normally released tomorrow will be released on Friday. Soybean futures also finished lower likely also having influence on corn, as traders may have decided to reduce long positions in all row crops. While there is some corn to be harvested, we believe that harvest pressure is now behind the market. Attention will now focus on South American weather and crop prospects. The markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, but will open at 8:30 central on Friday, November 26. The ethanol grind indicated 109.5 mb, about 2 mb more than last week.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Soybean futures traded in a rangebound fashion, finishing the day near the bottom half of the daily trading range. Futures lost 3 to 7 cents in lackluster trade, as a lack of new positive news, along with weakness in soybean meal, weighed on price. Providing support was a sale of soybean oil to India. January futures lost 6-1/2 to close at 12.66-1/2 and November 2022 gave up 3-3/4 to end the session at 12.49-3/4.
The futures market struggled today, but never really looked weak. On the one hand, prices finished off the high, not a great sign. While some forecasters are suggesting growing concern of La Nina affecting crops, to date, the southern hemisphere planting and growing pace is on or ahead of schedule. Too much rain could be hampering crop production in central Brazil. Usually, too much rain in one area is of benefit to other areas where rainfall is normal, or even welcomed. Firming world vegetable prices and traders moving back into long soybean oil short soymeal is also helping provide support for oil, which closed 60 to 80 cents higher, while meal lost near 5.00. Depending on contract month, the 100 or 200-day moving average held as overhead resistance.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Wheat rallied early on setting new contract highs, but that was short-lived, as one would’ve expected ahead of a holiday after setting contract highs for 5 days in a row. Dec Chicago lost 19-1/4 cents, closing at 8.36-3/4 & KC wheat closed 5 cents higher at 8.73-1/4.
To see prices close lower today is of no real shock, especially with the run wheat has had this week and last – seems likely funds took some profit today and will see what the market holds next week when normal trading resumes. KC wheat still was stronger than Chicago today, as the rains in Australia continue to support KC wheat. It is still feared that the US drought is only going to expand and worsen this year due to the effects of La Nina. The world’s milling quality and protein wheat continues to slip and ultimately, end users may have to turn to US wheat if Australia’s crop isn’t sufficient this year. Russian wheat prices continue to climb alongside their export tax, which is currently $78/mt, and it is believed Russia could increase that by another $1-8 before year’s end.
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Author
John Heinberg