Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 23, 2023: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 24, 2023: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00.

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong selling pressure across the commodity market triggered risk off trade, pressuring grain futures.  December corn futures lost 5 cents on the session, and 3 ¼ cents for the week.
• Weekly corn export sales were towards the higher end of expectation at 1.432 MMT. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week.  For the year, corn export sales are up 27% year over year.
• Over the weekend, the South American weather forecast for Argentina and Brazil will remain a focus. Improvement in some rainfall forecasts have helped pressure soybeans the past couple sessions, but the overall pattern is looking to stay dry. The weather in December going into January will be very key for both soybean and corn markets.
• December grain options expired during the session, which likely added to the volatility on the session. Prices can move to areas of large open interest, which can trigger price movement.
• The weak price action to end the week, and the lack of fresh news will likely limit the corn market going into the start of next week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower on a day of thin holiday trade volume despite good export sales, a bundle of flash sales this morning, and Brazilian weather that remains hot, dry, and concerning for local producers.
• For the week ending November 16, the USDA reported an increase of 35.3 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. This was a good number, but still down 75% from the previous week and 47% from the prior 4-week average. Exports shipments of 61.0 mb were well above the 29.6 mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s estimates but were down 14% from the previous week. Primary destinations were to China, Spain, and Indonesia.
• On top of the relatively strong export sales, two new flash sales were reported today with 129,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year and 323,400 mt for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 year.
• In South America, Argentina has been faring better than Brazil as far as precipitation amounts, and although Brazil has received scattered showers, it has seen anywhere near the soaking rains that have been needed. According to Agroconsult, the Brazilian soybean production for 23/24 has been revised lower to 161.38 mmt from 163.25 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• US wheat futures closed with losses in all three classes alongside a lower close in Paris milling wheat futures. Weakness may have in part stemmed from sharply lower soybeans pulling the grain complex down.
• The USDA reported an increase of only 6.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments of 11.0 mb last week were below the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA 23/24 export goal of 700 mb.
• News outlets have reported that Russia is setting a grain export quota in the amount of 24 mmt that will run from February 15 to the end of June. This will include wheat, corn, barley, and rye. Interestingly, Russia has also issued a durum wheat export ban from December 1 to May 31.
• China’s wheat imports this year are up 38% compared to last year, at a record 10.8 mmt. With the price of US wheat falling, it will be interesting to see if China makes any more purchases from the US. Additionally, Chinese food group COFCO is said to have purchased Canadian durum wheat for the first time to be processed into flour.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina has harvested 27% of their wheat crop. While weather in that country has recently improved, it was probably too little too late for wheat. The BAGE is expecting a 14.7 mmt harvest.
• In India, wheat sowing is being hindered by dry soil conditions. Therefore, and despite near record high internal prices, India may shift wheat to planting other crops including chickpeas and sorghum. As of November 17, Indian farmers have planted 8.6 million hectares of wheat, down 5.5% from last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• No dairy content today.

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Author

Kelly Rubisch