CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures pushed to new nearby lows on the trading session to start the week, pressured by strong selling in the wheat market and on-going demand concerns. December corn lost 7 ¾ cents and posted its lowest daily close since July 2021.
• The weak price action and the overall negative trend keeps pressure on the corn market as bullish news is still limited in a market that is working through the final pieces of this year’s corn harvest.
• Weekly corn export inspections were below analyst expectations at 407,000 mt (16 mb). Year-over-year, total inspections are up 25% for the marketing year. Last week’s shipping pace was impacted by the Thanksgiving Day Holiday, and water level concerns reoccurring for the Mississippi River.
• Brazil weather is still a focal point in the markets. Some weather seems to be stabilizing, which has pressured soybean futures. Corn is more likely a longer-term story as delayed soybean planting will push corn planting back on Brazil’s key second corn crop. Argentina weather is improving, and corn and soybean production could return to more “normal” levels than the last two years influenced by drought.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly lower in the front months but higher to unchanged in deferred months in a day of mixed trade that saw prices anywhere from 7 cents lower to 7 cents higher. Soybean meal and oil ended the day higher, further improving crush margins.
• Soybean inspections totaled 53 mb for the week ending Thursday, November 13, which was within the trade range but down slightly from last week. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 641 mb, which is down 11% from the previous year.
• In Brazil, showers were reported in the central region of the country over the weekend and temperatures fell slightly, but there still has not been a major soaking rain that is needed, and crop failure is expected to occur in Mato Grosso and other northern states. Southern Brazil has been getting flooded with rain which will likely affect their production as well.
• While more favorable South American weather has caused soybeans to fall to the low end of their recent trading range, exports have picked up with 16.6 mb of new sales to China and unknown on Friday, and domestic demand has been strong with profitable crush margins.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Another risk off session and lack of fresh news contributed to pressure in the wheat market. All three US futures classes closed with double digit losses, alongside lower Matif futures. March Matif wheat has been lower for eight of the past ten sessions. Today’s lower price action is also despite the US Dollar being in a downtrend.
• Weekly wheat inspections totaled 10.2 mb, bringing the 23/24 inspection totals to 299 mb. This is down 23% from last year and inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace.
• Ukraine is doubling down on their export corridor. News outlets are reporting that they are planning to have convoy vessels in place for protection in the Black Sea. With the war raging on, Ukraine has shipped only 12.7 mmt of grain so far this season, versus 17.6 mmt at the same time last year.
• Argentina’s wheat harvest is reported to be 27% complete. But early drought there, and also in Australia, could mean a combined reduction of 9-12 mmt of exports of wheat globally.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• 2024 cheese futures continue to make new contract lows on lack of demand and poor spot trading. The February contract closed at $1.718/lb, this represents a nearly 30-cent drop from February of this year.
• Spot whey has done the opposite of cheddar moving in an upward direction on better pricing and demand, especially in the global market.
• Class III futures have followed cheese lower, turning lower again on Monday in 2024 contracts. The 2024 Class III average sits at $18.05/cwt.
• Class IV futures for 2024 have started to inch higher with the January and February contracts gaining 21 and 18 cents on the day. The 2024 Class IV average sits at $19.46/cwt.
• Butter has all but failed to carry any of that all-time high momentum heading into the end of the year. Spot butter has lost $1.5025/lb since hitting all-time highs in October. The higher price really caused a sell-off as the market couldn’t find buyers at those levels. Butter is now about 24 cents off the lows for the year.

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Author

John Heinberg