CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite strong buying in other grain markets and the commodity sector in general, corn futures closed mixed on the session. With selling pressure in the front-end contracts, December corn lost 4 cents for the day.
• The upcoming first notice day for December corn is Thursday, 11/30, and that may have added to the selling pressure since the holder of long corn contracts needs to exit those positions or risk the prospects of delivery.
• Strong buying in the wheat market and soybean market helped limit the downside in corn futures. Wheat futures shook off earlier session pressure to post positive closes. December corn did test key support at a new low of 450, and that level could be a key psychological price point, which could trigger additional support if prices can hold above it.
• Buying in the crude oil market likely helped support corn prices. Ethanol margins will likely remain supportive based on improved gasoline demand and driving over the past holiday weekend.
• Corn harvest is basically complete as the USDA reported corn harvest at 96% complete on this week’s Crop Progress report. Hedge pressure should start being minimized as extra supplies that were pushed onto the market are being worked through, and producers are storing bushels to encourage a more supportive cash market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher today as prices rebounded from three previous consecutive lower closes. Soybeans remain in a wide trading range over the past month, with swings a result of changes in Brazilian weather forecasts. Soybean meal ended lower while soybean oil was higher.
• The prospect of tight US ending stocks in 2024 along with good demand recently, has helped support soybean prices while corn and wheat have slipped to new lows. This morning, a flash sale was reported totaling 123,300 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for 23/24.
• While Brazilian weather may be forecast to improve over the next seven days, the hot and dry conditions in the central and northern regions where soybeans were planted may impact final yields. Several private analysts have reduced their estimates for Brazilian production and MB Agro is saying this could lead to a decrease in export potential to 96 mmt from 100 mmt.
• As of November 21, funds were shown to be long 81,587 contracts of soybeans, a reduction of 6,326 contracts from the previous week. Funds also have a large net long position in soybean meal which is over 137,000 contracts and has helped prices remain elevated.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat is 91% emerged versus 89%  on average. Additionally, the crop rating improved 2% to 50% good to excellent. This was better than expected and well above last year’s 34% GTE. Nevertheless, wheat rallied today, reversing off yesterday’s lows. Technically, all three US futures classes could be considered oversold, and this may be the start of a correction to the upside.
• On a bearish note, Russia has said that their grain harvest is now 98% complete with 151 mmt collected. Of that total, 99 mmt is said to be wheat, which is well above the USDA estimate of 90 mmt. If true, given the fact that they are already dominating exports, this would continue to pressure US exports and the futures market.
• According to the CFTC, between November 14 and November 21, managed funds added nearly 19,000 contracts to their short Chicago wheat position, leaving them net short about 108,000 contracts. This could lead to a significant short covering rally if there is enough new bullish news to act as a catalyst.
• Severe storms in the Black Sea have resulted in a pause on the loading of grain in both Ukrainian and Russian ports. Additionally, over one million people are said to be without power. The storm is forecasted to last for most of the week with winds up to 90 miles per hour.
• Wheat harvest in Brazil is nearly complete – CONAB said that as of November 18, 94.2% of the crop has been collected. But in the southern regions, quality is lacking due to the heavy amounts of rain they have received. This is keeping their internal wheat prices on the rise.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheddar barrels dropped 4.25 cents on the day with 4 bids out there, while blocks went unchanged. Spot cheese sits at $1.51875/lb, which is a slight improvement so far from last week. Spot whey went unchanged with no loads traded to close at $0.3975/lb.
• Class III was mixed on the day but still remains in a downtrend after getting pressured from lower cheese trading.
• Spot butter jumped 6.75 cents on 5 loads traded to close at $2.5675/lb. Butter futures also saw some gains with support from the spot market with the January contract seeing the largest share increasing 3.25 cents/lb to close at $2.5303/lb.
• Class IV prices saw an improvement on better spot trading in butter. The Class IV average sits at $19.49/cwt which is a 4-cent improvement from yesterday.

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Author

Amanda Brill