CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures rose for the sixth consecutive day, driven by steady demand and a larger-than-expected reduction in corn yield in Friday’s USDA report. December corn ended the week up 16 ½ cents.
• Corn futures used a larger than expected cut in corn yield in Friday’s USDA report and consistent demand to push prices higher for the third consecutive day. For the week, December corn finished 16 ½ cents higher.
• The USDA lowered their projected corn yield by 0.7 bpa in Friday’s USDA crop production report to 183.1 bpa. The lower yield was a reflection of the dry weather at the end of the growing season and during harvest.
• Despite a good demand tone, the USDA left current demand projections unchanged given the early time of the marketing year. The reduced production lowered corn carryout projections to 1.938 billion bushels, which was slightly below analyst expectations and the fifth month in a row that carryout has declined.
• Positive gains in the commodity markets may have been limited on talk the President-elect Trump was asking Robert Lighthizer to resume his role as head of US trade policy. Robert Lighthizer is known for having a tough stance when working with China and a supporter of trade tariffs.
• On Friday, the USDA announced another flash corn sale of 200,480 mt (7.9 mb) to unknown destinations for the current marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher following a volatile day of trade. The WASDE report turned out to be friendly for soybeans, which saw gains of as much as 18 cents, but prices faded into negative territory before recovering into the close. Soybean meal and oil continued their opposing trends with meal lower and soybean oil higher.
• Today’s WASDE report saw soybean yields fall much more than expected to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. Total production fell to 4.461 billion bushels from 4.582 bb as a result, with 24/25 US ending stocks falling to 470 million bushels from 550 mb last month. Export demand was reduced by 25 mb despite strong recent export sales. World ending stocks were lowered as well and were below the lower range of analyst estimates.
• After the USDA report, January soybeans rallied up to their 100-day moving average for the first time the beginning of June. While the following pullback may have been technical, it coincided with the timing of Donald Trump asking protectionist Robert Lighthizer to run the US trade policy. Lighthizer has been tough on China which may have concerned traders today and brought caution to the rally.
• For the week, January soybeans gained 36 ½ cents to 1030 ¼ while new crop November 2025 gained 20 ¼ cents to 1052 ½. December soybean meal managed to gain $0.90 on the week, ending at $296.20 while December soybean oil gained 2.47 cents to 48.77 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a day of two-sided trade, wheat closed mixed in the Chicago contracts but posted losses across the board for Kansas City and Minneapolis. With little supportive news from the USDA and a rebound in the US Dollar index today, wheat had limited reasons to rally.
• Today’s WASDE report was generally neutral for wheat, as expected. US 24/25 ending stocks were raised slightly from 812 million bushels to 815 mb. Global 23/24 carryout was also increased a touch, from 266.2 million metric tons to 266.3 mmt. For 24/25, global carryout was reduced a tad from 257.7 mmt to 257.6 mmt. Additionally, US wheat production was unchanged at 1.971 billion bushels and exports were also untouched at 825 mb.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is now 12.1% complete, an increase of 4.4% from a week ago. They left total production unchanged at 18.6 mmt, above today’s USDA estimate of 17.5 mmt, which was reduced from the October estimate of 18.0 mmt.
• The USDA did lower their Brazilian wheat production estimate in today’s report, from 9.0 mmt in October to 8.5 mmt today. However, analyst StoneX is even lower with their projection of 7.5 mmt, compared to their previous guess of 7.9 mmt.
• According to Russia’s prime minister, the country’s grain harvest has reached 128 mmt, with the total grain crop estimated at 130 mmt. The Russian agriculture minister also projected the 2024 wheat harvest at 83 mmt. However, today, the USDA estimated Russian wheat production slightly lower, at 81.5 mmt, with Russian wheat exports unchanged at 48 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese was lower for a fifth straight day on Friday, dropping 3.1250 cents to close at $1.74375/lb. Whey was unchanged at $0.63/lb.
• Class III futures continue to be led lower by the weakness in the cheese market. February and March contracts were the only ones to finish in the green today, both closing at $19.27.
• Spot butter lost 1.25 cents to close at $2.65/lb while powder added 0.25 cents to $1.3875/lb.
• Class IV futures were weaker on the butter market slipping. December futures settled at $21.23.

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Author

John Heinberg