CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market found some buying strength on Thursday, recovering a portion of Wednesday’s weakness. The strong export demand pace helped support corn prices. March corn gained 3 ¾ cents to 447 ¼, while May added 3 ¾ cents to 454 ½.
• The technical side of the corn market is being closely monitored. March futures challenged the 200-day moving average at 448 again on Thursday. A break above this could trigger some technical buying and stop orders above the market.
• The USDA released weekly export sales for the week ending October 30 on Thursday morning as the USDA is still catching up from the government shutdown. Corn sales for that week were 1.995 MMT (78.5 mb). This total was near the top end of expectations for the week.  Mexico was the largest buyer of US corn for the week.
• As of October 30, corn export sales are at a record pace, and 31% above last year’s very strong start to the export market. Sales have reached 48% of the USDA target for the marketing year of 3.075 BB.
• The U.S. Grain Council projected the U.S. corn crop for 2025-26 to reach 425.53 MMT or 16,750 BB. The crop is also highlighted by the lowest rate of broken corn and foreign material in the report’s history.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher, breaking a three-day losing streak. Charts are still showing a head and shoulders formation, and there is a gap lower on the January chart at $10.63. January soybeans gained 3-3/4 cents to $11.19-1/2 and March gained 3-1/4 cents to $11.28-3/4. January soybean meal lost $0.10 to $31.20 while January soybean oil gained 0.12 cents to 51.79 cents.
• Export sales for the week ending October 30 showed soybean sales of 46 million bushels, marking a total 38% below last year. The report also revealed China’s first purchase of the season at 232,000 metric tons. With export shipments down 39% year-over-year, the USDA is likely to revise its export forecast lower in the upcoming WASDE report.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday that China is progressing toward its 12 MMT soybean purchase commitment. However, questions remain about whether the shipments will conclude by the end of the calendar year, which seems doubtful, or by the end of the marketing year.
• Brazilian soybean planting is reported at 89% complete by AgRural which compared to 81% a week ago and 91% a year ago at this time. Despite good South American weather, StoneX has trimmed its outlook for Brazilian soybean production to 177.2 mmt, which is down 0.9% from their previous estimate.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures finished mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts posting gains while Minneapolis declined. Winter wheat rose in line with strength in corn and soybeans, whereas spring wheat prices fell on higher projections for Canadian wheat production. March Chi gained 2 cents to close at 540-1/4, KC was up 4-1/2 at 534, and MIAX lost 3-1/4 to 573.
• Statistics Canada revised its 2025/26 all-wheat production forecast upward by 3.3 MMT to 39.95 MMT. The new estimate exceeds last year’s record output by 11% and surpasses industry expectations. Spring wheat production is projected at 29.26 MMT, which would represent an increase of roughly 10% from the previous year’s harvest.
• The recent Algerian wheat purchase amounted to about 900,000 mt and is believed to be sourced primarily from Russia, but perhaps some other Black Sea origins as well. The cost was said to be around $256/mt on a CNF basis.
• According to the Ukrainian Grain Association, their nation’s grain and oilseed exports may rise 5% this season to 49 mmt. However, this could depend heavily on Russian attacks against their logistics and infrastructure. Additionally, Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest is estimated at 22.5 mmt with exports anticipated to reach 16.5 mmt this season.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures held small to moderate gains today. Front month December was the biggest mover, oddly, settling up 30 cents at $16.10 while January gained 15 cents.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.42/lb today, while whey was up 1.50 cents with a $0.7450/lb close.
• Class IV futures were mostly higher as well with gains ranging from a penny to 20 cents out into late 2026.
• Spot butter was up a half cent to $1.47/lb while powder gained 0.75 cents to close at $1.1650/lb. Both are up about 2 cents on the week.

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Author

Brandon Doherty