CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw selling pressure during the session as the market continues to balance a strong demand tone against Tuesday’s USDA projection of a 2.0+ billion-bushel carryout. March corn futures slipped 3 ¾ cents to 444 ½, while May futures also lost 3 ¾ cents to 451 ¾.
• Corn remains in a consolidation pattern just below the 200-day moving average. The March contract has traded around the 445 level for 10 consecutive sessions.
• The USDA lowered global ending stocks in Tuesday’s WASDE report to 280.71 MMT, this tightened global stocks-to-use ratio based off the good demand. Global stocks-to-use ratio is trending at a 10-year low.
• Weekly ethanol production slipped off its record pace last week as production dropped slightly to 325 million gallons/day for the week ending December 5. Production was in line with expectations and slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA targets for the marketing year of 5.600 billion bushels. A total of 110 mb was used in the production process last week.
• December futures complete trading on Friday afternoon, December 12. As the contract approaches expiration, associated volatility may influence broader corn market movement.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The soybean market saw a pause in selling pressure on Wednesday, with prices squeezing out marginal gains. The January futures gained 4 cents to $10.91 ¼ while March added 2 ¾ to close at $11.01. January soybean meal lost $0.10 to $301.20 and January soybean oil gained 0.07 cents to 51.09 cents.
• U.S. Trade representative Jameison Greer testified before the House Appropriations Committee late Tuesday and extended the timeline on the 12 MMT Chinese purchases. He stated that there is a “discrepancy” in the actual completion date and the purchases are for the growing season or completed by August 30.
• Yesterday’s WASDE report was a non-event for soybeans with no changes to U.S. ending stocks at 290 mb. World ending stocks were slightly higher at 122.4 mmt, and South American production was unchanged, but Brazil is expected to produce another record crop.
• Brazil’s weather forecast looks favorable over the next couple of weeks, which should help alleviate dryness concerns and support development of what is expected to be a record soybean crop this spring.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across the board, despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index today. With US 25/26 wheat carryout at a six-year high of 901 mb, and rising global stocks to boot, for now it may be difficult for wheat to rally in a significant way. March Chicago slipped 5 cents to 529-1/2, Kansas City was down 3-3/4 at 523-1/4, and MIAX lost 1 cent to 575-1/4.
• According to data from Coceral, the 2026 European Union grain harvest may fall by 3% year over year to 296.7 mmt. The soft wheat crop in particular is estimated at 143.9 mmt compared with 147.5 mmt previously, and this is largely due to expectations for declining yields.
• India’s winter crop acreage is expected to be record high, and soil moisture is abundant. A total of 47.9 million hectares of winter crops have been planted so far, which is up 6.1% from last year. Wheat planted area totaled 24.14 million hectares, which was up 10.8% from the previous year. Barring any future weather issues, this could be bearish for the wheat market longer term.
• LSEG commodities research has kept their estimate of Chinese 26/27 wheat production unchanged at 141 mmt. In spite of copious October rains which slowed fieldwork, China’s winter wheat planting is essentially complete. Furthermore, the extended forecast suggests December will be normal to slightly above normal temperatures, with near normal precipitation in their wheat producing regions – this should benefit the crop but could be another bearish factor for the U.S. market.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mostly higher today, with January continuing its upward momentum and gaining 10 cents to close at $15.45.
• Spot cheese remained unchanged at $1.3800/lb, while spot whey gained 1.5 cents to close at $0.7600/lb.
• Class IV futures were light on trading again today, with the majority of contracts remaining unchanged.
• Spot butter remained unchanged at $1.4775/lb, while spot powder gained 0.50 cents to close at $1.170/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg