TFM Daily Market Summary 12-15-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures tested long-term support on Monday, held and lifted off the lows, supported by a good demand tone. March corn still finished 1 cent lower to 439 ¾, while May corn lost 1 ¼ cents to 447 ¾. March futures closed the day 3 cents off the low of 436 ¾.
  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Monday morning as Unknown destinations purchased 150,320 mt (5.9 mb) for the current marketing year. This was the third consecutive session with an announced corn sale.
  • USDA released weekly export sales for the week of November 20 on Monday morning. For that week, US exporters posted new sales of 1.834 MMT (72.6 mb). This total was near the top end of expectations. Total sales for the current marketing year are trending 31% ahead of last year and are at a historical record.
  • USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday morning. For the week ending December 11, US shipped 1.583 MMT (62.3 mb) of corn. Total export shipments have reached 886 mb, up 69% over last year.
  • Reuters reported that the Trump Administration and the EPA would be delayed in releasing the finalized 2026 biofuels blending quotas, which could lead to concerns regarding policy for biofuels going into 2026.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but came back from lows earlier this morning. January soybeans were down 5 cents to $10.71-3/4 while March was down 5-1/2 cents to $10.81-1/4. The low of the day was $10.76-3/4 which was ¾ cent away from filling the gap. January soybean meal gained $1.00 to $303.50 while January soybean oil lost 0.59 cents to 49.48 cents.
  • Today’s export inspections report was poor for soybeans despite the recent Chinese purchases. Soybean inspections totaled 29.2 million bushels for the week ending December 11, which was below the low range of analyst estimates. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 504 mb, which is down 46% from the previous year.
  • This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year. This follows a sale of 132,000 mt of soybeans to China on Friday and a number of sales to China throughout last week.
  • In Brazil, roughly 90 percent of the soybean crop is believed to be planted, and the growing season is off to a strong start. More consistent rainfall is expected to continue through December, supporting early crop development.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The wheat market was under pressure today, which could be largely attributed to news that China has purchased their first cargo of Argentine wheat since the 1990s. This comes just shortly after Argentina lowered their wheat export tax by 2% to 7.5%. With a lack of fresh, friendly news, wheat upside may be limited. March Chicago closed 8-1/2 cents lower at 520-3/4, Kansas City slipped 6 cents to 512, and MIAX fell 7 cents to 568-3/4.
  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 17.9 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 519 mb, up 22% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; 25/26 total exports area projected at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
  • Beginning February 2, Euronext will implement a two-hour evening trading session for ag commodities, including wheat, rapeseed, and maize. MATIF wheat, which trades on this exchange, is a global price benchmark along with CME Chicago wheat futures. This new session will run from 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM Central European time (11:30 AM – 1:30 PM Central Standard Time in the US). The reason for this change is reportedly to attract additional trading interest from US investors.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • A 1.50c lower offer in the spot whey price may have put Class III milk futures on the defensive on Monday. Whey closed at $0.75/lb.
  • Cheese had a mixed session, with blocks gaining 3c to $1.38/lb while barrels fell 1.25c to $1.40/lb. This puts cheese at $1.39/lb.
  • Class III milk couldn’t quite hold onto gains from Friday, as nearby contracts were down double digits.
  • Class IV milk caught a bid, as the powder market regained a penny back to $1.17/lb. Butter continues to hold the market down, though.
  • There will be a Global Dairy Trade auction event tomorrow. Global prices have been struggling for the past few months.

 

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg

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