CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market fought of selling pressure in the wheat and soybean market to finish higher on the session. Strong underlying demand helped lift prices and snapped a three-session losing streak. March corn settled 4 cents higher at 440-1/2, while May gained 3-1/4 to close at 447-3/4.
• USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Wednesday morning. Mexico purchased 177,055 MT (6.9 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year.
• US corn continues to hold the most competitive export values versus global competitors, and today’s flash sale marks USDA-reported business in four of the past five sessions.
• Weekly ethanol production ramped up last week to set a new all-time high for weekly production. For the week ending December 12, production rose to a weekly production of 332.5 million gallons. Corn usage for the week was 112 mb, trending ahead of the pace to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.
• The EPA announced Wednesday afternoon that it expects to finalize biofuel policy rules in the first quarter of 2026. Biofuel markets are looking for clearer direction from the current administration.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the fourth consecutive day as selling pressure continued, but prices found support at the 200-day moving average which was $10.65 for March. January soybeans lost 4-1/2 cents to $10.58 while March beans were down 3 cents to $10.68-3/4. January soybean meal lost $4.20 to $298.20 and January soybean oil gained 0.16 cents to 48.52 cents.
• Export sales were solid today, with private exporters reporting 198,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 and another 125,000 mt sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26. Flash sales have been reported nearly every day for the past week, and the US Treasury Secretary now expects China to fulfill its 12 mmt purchase commitment by the end of February.
• Supportive to soybean oil today was news that the EPA is now expected to finalize its biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027. These were initially thought to be released in October, but now they are expected in the first quarter of next year.
• China’s state stockpiler Sinograin sold 323,000 metric tons, or 63% of the total offered, of imported soybeans at auction on Tuesday at roughly $547/mt. These sales help clear inventory and could make room for additional US soybean purchases.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat market had a mixed close, with March Chicago slipping 3-1/4 cents to 506-1/4, Kansas City gaining 2-3/4 cents to 507-3/4, and MIAX closing 3 cents lower at 562. In the face of a firmer US Dollar Index, another lower close for MATIF wheat, and a generally negative tone, the market held up relatively well. With some contracts posting fresh lows today and technical conditions extremely oversold, wheat may be nearing a short-term bottom.
• China reportedly cancelled the purchase of 132,000 mt of US white wheat, which added to negativity in the marketplace. The reason behind the cancellation is unknown, but with ample global supply and stiff price competition, it is not necessarily surprising.
• According to the Ukrainian farmer’s union, UAC, their nation’s wheat exports have been curtailed by Russian attacks on ports in the Black Sea, as well as energy facilities. About 70% of their wheat exports go through these ports, but they have exported only about 359,000 mt of wheat this month compared with the 1 mmt contracted for export during December. UAC added that the port is functioning at only 20% capacity.
• LSEG commodities research increased its 25/26 Canadian wheat production estimate to 39.9 mmt, a 9.3% boost from its prior projection. The higher estimate aligns more closely with updated Stats Canada figures and reflects supportive satellite vegetation imagery.
• LSEG also released an update for US 26/27 wheat crop production but kept their estimate steady at 51.7 mmt. Additionally, the winter wheat planted area estimate was unchanged at 33.01 mmt with production for that class forecasted at 36.6 mmt. Furthermore, LSEG added that there is currently little risk for winterkill in US wheat growing regions.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures closed mixed, as the majority of nearby contracts slipped modestly lower, while gains in deferred months remained limited.
• Spot cheese was unchanged today at $1.39875/lb, while spot whey declined 3 cents to close at $0.7200/lb.
• Class IV milk moved higher today, as January gained 7 cents to settle at $13.80, though overall momentum remains limited.
• Spot butter gained 1.5 cents to close at $1.4675/lb, while spot powder declined 0.50 cents to close at $1.1575/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty