TFM Daily Market Summary 12-18-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures saw follow through buying strength supported by continued strong export demand that underpins the market. March corn gained 4 cents to 444 1/2, while May futures added 4 ½ cents to close at 452 1/4.
  • The corn market has traded firmer over the past two sessions, despite weakness in soybeans and lackluster activity in wheat. U.S. corn remains competitively priced against other export supplies, reflecting a tight global supply situation.
  • USDA announced weekly export sales for the week of November 27 on Thursday morning. U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.792 MMT (70.6 mb) for the current marketing. Japan and Mexico were the largest buyers of U.S. corn that week.
  • Corn export sales are maintaining their record pace with total sales at 44,356 MMT (1.746 bb), which is up 30% over last year.
  • South American weather will draw more attention in January, a critical period for crop development in Brazil and Argentina’s corn and soybean fields.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fifth consecutive day taking out their 200-day moving average despite fresh Chinese purchases. January soybeans lost 6 cents to $10.52-1/4 and March lost 6-3/4 cents to $10.62. January soybean meal gained $0.20 to $298.40 while January soybean oil lost 0.41 cents to 48.11 cents.
  • This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 114,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 25/26 marketing year. This follows yesterday’s sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 and another 125,000 mt sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26. There have been soybean sales nearly every day since last Monday.
  • Bloomberg reports that China has purchased 6 mmt of soybeans, half of its 12 mmt commitment. While they may fall short of meeting the full amount by year-end, current buying pace suggests the commitment could be fulfilled by the end of the marketing year or sooner.
  • Export sales were released for the week ending November 27, and the USDA reported an increase of 40.6 million bushels of soybeans for 25/26 and an increase of 0.4 mb fort 26/27. Non-China sales were 900k tons below last year which was bearish. Export shipments of 29.5 mb were below the 29.9m mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s export estimates.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat closed higher today led by the Minneapolis class, while Chicago lagged quite a bit behind. March Chicago gained 1-1/2 cents to 507-3/4, Kansas City was up 9-1/4 at 517, and MIAX closed 11 cents higher at 573. SovEcon has raised its estimate of Russia’s 2025 wheat crop to 88.8 mmt, which would rank as the third largest on record if realized. The report may help explain why Chicago wheat lagged, as the other classes begin to recover from an oversold position.
  • According to Chinese customs data, their wheat and wheat flour imports for the month of November totaled just 250,000 mt, which is down a impressive 278.6% year over year. Meanwhile, their year-to-date imports have reached 3.4 mmt, representing a 69.1% decline year over year.
  • The International Grains Council reports that Argentina currently offers the world’s cheapest FOB wheat, priced at $201–$206/mt. Ukraine follows as the next most competitive exporter, and as both are major suppliers, this could weigh on U.S. futures.
  • Wheat has been losing value relative to corn, with the March Chicago wheat contract trading at about a 64-cent premium to March corn — the lowest spread in over two years. This narrowing could encourage increased use of wheat in feed rations.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III futures faced double-digit losses out into mid-2026 today with January falling 28 cents to $15.61.
  • Spot cheese fell 1.50 cents today to move to $1.38375/lb, now up just a quarter cent on the week. Spot whey enters Friday down 6 cents at $0.7050/lb.
  • Class IV futures were mixed with most nearby contract seeing small losses. The second month contract was unchanged at $13.80.
  • Spot butter gave back 2.75 cents today with a $1.44/lb close. Powder was 0.25 cents lower.

 

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Author

John Heinberg

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