CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market consolidated on Friday, holding marginal losses during the session. March corn trade ¾ cent lower to 443 ¾, and May corn slipped ¾ cent to 451 ½. For the week, March corn gained 3 cents.
• The corn market found support on rumors that China was checking U.S. corn export prices on Thursday. Talk that China purchased 4–8 cargoes of U.S. corn helped push prices higher and maintain those gains into today. U.S. corn remains highly competitive on the global export market until fresh South American supplies arrive late this spring into early summer.
• The South American Ag consulting group, Safra, lowered their estimate for Brazil corn production. Their estimate was lowered slightly to 142.88 MMT from 143.56 MMt from the previous forecast.
• South American weather will draw more attention in January, a critical period for crop development in Brazil and Argentina’s corn and soybean fields.
• USDA will release another delayed export sales report on Monday morning for the week of December 4. Expectations for new sales are to range from 1.2-2.4 MMT as U.S. corn exports maintain their record pace for the current marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the sixth consecutive day and have fallen below their 200-day moving average. January soybeans were down 3 cents to $10.49-1/4 while March was down 2-1/2 cents to $10.59-1/2. January soybean meal was down $0.80 to $297.60 and January soybean oil was down 0.21 cents to 47.90 cents.
• This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 134,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 25/26 marketing year. China has now purchased over 6 mmt of the 12 mmt it committed to for this marketing year. A sale of 114,000 mt was reported yesterday, and there have been sales nearly every day over the last week.
• Export sales were released for the week ending November 27, and the USDA reported an increase of 40.6 million bushels of soybeans for 25/26 and an increase of 0.4 mb fort 26/27. Non-China sales were 900k tons below last year which was bearish. Export shipments of 29.5 mb were below the 29.9m mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s export estimates.
• For the week, January soybeans lost 27-1/2 cents and March lost 27-1/4 cents and are now $1.12 off the November high. January soybean meal lost $4.90 and January soybean oil lost 2.17 cents. Pressure has come from very good weather in both Brazil and Argentina.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a relatively quiet session, wheat had a mixed close. March Chicago gained 2 cents to 509-3/4, Kansas City slipped 1-3/4 cents to 515-1/4, and MIAX closed 5 cents higher at 578. MATIF wheat also had a mixed close, offering no direction for the U.S. market. With little in the way of fresh news, wheat may be treading water until something new comes along. But with the rebound in the U.S. dollar over the past few sessions and expectations for ample global supply, wheat may have difficulty rallying in a significant way.
• According to the USDA, as of December 16, an estimated 36% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is experiencing drought conditions, with spring wheat area at 16% in drought. This is an increase of 2% from the week prior for winter wheat, while conditions held steady for spring wheat.
• The Black Sea winter wheat crop is said to have gone into dormancy in mixed condition and the forecast looks warm and dry for the next week or so, which is unfavorable for the crop. Due to the recent warmth, the crop may not be as hardy, which could cause winterkill after Christmas, when colder weather is expected to hit.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has increased their estimate of Argentina’s wheat harvest from 25.5 to 27.1 mmt. This represents a 6.3% increase from their last estimate and is also 3.1 mmt above the USDA. Additionally, if realized, this would be far and above last year’s 18.6 mmt production figure. Furthermore, harvest is reported to be about 73% complete and the BAGE stated they are not ruling out further increases to the production estimate.
• According to the European Commission, total 25/26 EU grain production is now seen at 287.2 mmt, up from their previous forecast of 286.9 mmt. The soft wheat crop, specifically, was increased by 0.2 mmt to 134.4 mmt. Meanwhile, the corn and barley crops were raised as well.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were subject to small losses as market activity was quiet on the day. March and April contracts saw the largest loss of 4 cents, closing at $15.65 and $16.22, respectively.
• Spot cheese was slightly higher today, closing out the week at $1.39/lb. Whey prices held steady at $0.7050/lb.
• Class IV futures were steady to slightly weaker on the day as butter traded lower. The February contract lost 6 cents to close at $13.70.
• Spot butter fell 2.50 cents to go home at $1.4150/lb while powder improved by 0.25 cents to finish at $1.1575/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill