The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, December 25, in observance of Christmas

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• It was a very quiet day in the corn market as prices finished the week slightly higher. March futures had a 2 ½ cent trading range on the day and closed ½ cent higher. For the week, March corn still finished 10 cent lower and posted a contract low weekly close.
• The corn market was lacking little fresh news as trade consolidated before the Christmas holiday break.
• Going into 2024, the corn export program will be a key to prices. Total corn commitments are running at 52.8% of the total USDA export sales projections. This totals 1.109 billion bushels, which is up 1.2% ahead of the average pace for this point in the marketing year. The corn export window is looking to be more aggressive in the early part of 2024.
• The closure of two major rail crossings into Mexico, caused by the migrant crises at the southern border, limited corn shipments into Mexico and pressured the corn market. This afternoon, the American Rail Association announced that the US-Mexico rail border was reopened.
• Argentina weather has been favorable for planting this season’s corn crop. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that corn planting is nearly 59% complete and overall conditions are good/excellent. Despite weather concerns in Brazil, a return of strong Argentina corn production will limit the upside potential in the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher to close out the week but remain near the bottom of their trading range as wetter Brazilian weather pressures the soy complex. For the week, March soybeans lost 25 ¼ cents, March soybean meal lost $5.50, and March soybean oil lost 1.13 cents.
• While last week featured at least one soybean flash sale each day of the week, there was only one flash sale reported this week of 132,000 mt on Tuesday which was to unknown destinations. There is still a window for US exports, but it will close soon as Brazil begins their soybean harvest within the next few months.
• This week’s export sales report showed decent numbers for soybeans at 78 mb with 5 mb of that amount for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year. Shipments were down 17%, but China and unknown destinations were buyers of 54 mb, a large portion of total export sales.
• Estimates for Brazilian production have fallen slightly, and private analysts are forecasting a range between 150 mmt and 160 mmt. The USDA still have their estimate at 161 mmt, but that may be revised lower in the next WASDE report. Argentina’s crop has been planted in good conditions and the planting progress is now 69% complete. Some of Brazil’s losses in production could be made up by Argentina.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had a mixed close today with small gains in Chicago but losses in KC and a relatively neutral close for MPLS. The KC futures in particular had heavier selling in the front months versus the deferred. This bear spreading may be a result of the southern Plains forecast that has more rain on the way this Saturday which should offer improved conditions to the HRW crop.
• Offering support to the wheat complex is the fact that the US Dollar Index continues to fall. As of this writing it is well above the daily low but still trading below the 102 level. If it continues to retreat, it should make US grain exports more attractive to world importers, offering a boost to the market.
• This morning, no resolution to the closed railway crossings between the US and Mexico (due to the migrant crisis) had been reached. As of this afternoon, it is being reported that border patrol will re-open the crossings today, a full five days after they were initially closed. According to the Union Pacific railway, up to $200 million per day of freight, including grain, was not able to be transported during the closure.
• The damage from the recent heavy storm in Argentina that affected infrastructure and left many without power is still being assessed. However, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the wheat crop was not materially damaged based on initial reports. They also did not make any adjustments to the wheat production estimate of 14.7 mmt, and harvest is said to be 65% complete versus 55% last week.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Second month Class III milk futures finished red for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. January was down 47c this week to a $15.43 close.
• Cheese pressure is constant and hasn’t let up, despite the block/barrel average now below $1.40/lb. The market was down 9.375c this week.
• The butter trade had a slight up week, recovering 5c to $2.54/lb on the spot trade.
• The whey market still holds off of this year’s lows. Spot whey finished the week at $0.38/lb after bottoming earlier this year at $0.2250/lb.
• Second month Class IV recovered 17c this week, aided by the higher butter trade. It will finish the week at $18.82 per cwt.

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Author

John Heinberg