MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no Daily Market Summary.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• As holiday trade is in full swing, corn futures finished higher on the session. Volatility was quiet as the March contract had a tight 2 ¾ trading range on the session. March futures gained ½ cent to 447 ½, while May added 1 cent to 455 ½.
• USDA released weekly export sales for the week ending December 11 on Tuesday morning. Total new corn sales reached 1.744 MMT (68.7 mb) for that week. Japan and South Korea were the top buyers of U.S. corn for that week. The current corn export sale pace exceeds the pace needed to reach the lofty USDA target for the growing season by nearly 270 mb.
• Monday’s USD export inspection remains strong at 68.7 MB for the week ending December 18. Current total corn exports are 69% ahead of last year’s pace and exceed the USDA target pace by nearly 300 mb.
• Ongoing attacks on Russia’s shipping infrastructure by Ukrainian drones have helped build some premium in the wheat market, supporting corn prices.
• The U.S. Dollar Index maintains its downward trend as the index posted a new daily low for this most recent move. The recent influx of liquidity into the system by the Federal Reserve continues to weaken the U.S. dollar, which should help support commodity prices.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower giving back gains from earlier in the day. January soybeans lost 1-3/4 cents to $10.51-1/2, and the high of the day was $10.57-3/4. March soybeans lost 1-1/4 cents to $10.63-3/4, January soybean meal gained $2.50 to $301.10, and January soybean oil lost 0.25 cents to 48.30 cents.
• March soybeans were on track to close above the 200-day moving average but failed. Despite this, stochastics still posted a crossover buy signal, and funds may see this as a buying opportunity. Seasonals tend to favor a move higher this time of year, and China has been a consistent buyer over the past 2 weeks.
• Yesterday’s export inspections saw soybean inspections at 870k tons, which was up from 810k tons a week ago but down from 1,775k at this time a year ago. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Taiwan. Having China back as top buyer is encouraging.
• CFTC data from December 9 showed funds selling 35,088 contracts of soybeans leaving them long 180,338 contracts. They sold 4,952 contracts of bean oil and were short 7,636 contracts and they sold 29,397 contracts of bean meal leaving them long 28,265 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat finished mostly higher on the day, led by strength in the KC contracts, while Minneapolis lagged amid some bear spreading in deferred months. Support came from concerns that unseasonably warm weather could bring HRW wheat out of dormancy, along with a softer U.S. dollar that slipped to its lowest level since early October. March Chicago gained 1 ½ cents to 517, Kansas City rose 6 ¾ to 528, and MIAX edged ¼ cent higher to 580 ¼.
• Reports of escalation in fighting between Russia and Ukraine have cast some doubt on the validity of ongoing peace talks, adding some war premium back to the marketplace.
• European Union soft wheat exports have reached 10.8 mmt as of December 21, which is down 2% year over year.
• According to SovEcon, Russia planted 16.1 million hectares of winter wheat this year, down 0.1 mmt from last year, and down 0.8 mmt from 2023. The reason cited for the decline in sown area is falling profit margins, which have been weakening since export taxes were implemented in 2021.
• The Egyptian state grain buyer is reported to have purchased about 700,000 mt of wheat for shipment in January / February. The wheat is expected to be sourced largely from the Black Sea area, but some from France as well.
• Russia’s agriculture ministry has indicated that their nation has increased wheat exports to the Middle East by 0.4% year over year to 8.8 mmt. Turkey is one of the main importers, having purchased 3.3 mmt, which is up almost double year over year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• On Tuesday, spot butter added 1.50c, whey added 1c, and powder gained 0.50c. It was a steady spot session.
• The cheese market continued lower, with blocks falling 0.75c to $1.3325/lb while barrels lost 2c to $1.40/lb.
• The market reacted to Monday’s milk production report mostly favorably, despite bearish data. The USDA said November production was up 4.50% from last year.
• After market close, the USDA released cold storage data. The report looked pretty favorable, with butter inventories down 1% from last year while cheese inventories were up only 2% despite all the extra production.
• Whey rebounding a penny went a long way with Class III futures. The market is watching whey closely to see if can hold above the $0.70/lb handle.

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Author

John Heinberg